
محمود
متوسلی
author
text
article
1998
per

Journal of Economic Research (Tahghighat E Eghtesadi)
University of Tehran
00398969
33
v.
2
no.
1998
https://jte.ut.ac.ir/article_25816_2a6416fbc9425e420f0fd4b692429d70.pdf
Economic Analysis of the Pivotal Wheat Project
سید کاظم
صدر
author
صمد اله رحمانی
کرمی
author
text
article
1998
per
The purpose of this article is to evaluate the Pivotal Irrigated Wheat
Project by CostBenefit Analysis method in order to find the internal rate of
return and the ratio of Present Value of net benefits to costs.To this end, we
have estimated the economic surplus created due to shift in wheat supply ,
as result ofimplementation ofthe Project and have calculated the above
criteria. We found that IRR and PV of Net Benefits to Cost ratio under two
alternative foreign exchange rate and appropriate supply elasticity range
economically justify the Project
Journal of Economic Research (Tahghighat E Eghtesadi)
University of Tehran
00398969
33
v.
2
no.
1998
https://jte.ut.ac.ir/article_25817_a69b93137cbabcc515c0dd21d45e5e2c.pdf
Evaluation of the Stock and Property Transfer in Major Public
Enterprises
اکبر
کمیجانی
author
محمد رحیم
احمدوند
author
text
article
1998
per
Regarding articles 134 and 138 of the constitutional Law and in
accordance with the notes of 437, 81, 82 and 83 of the general policies
from the first section of the First Five Year Economic Plan, in order to
increase efficiency in public enterprises, reduce the size of the
government and its intervention in non necessary economic activities, to create economic equilibrium, and to optimize resource allocation, the
cabinet ofministeres approved the policy ofpublic enterprises transfers in
1989. During 19891995 ministries, organizations, foundations, and etc
succeeded to trasfer about 3789676 million rials to private sector, public
enterprises and the government. Outofwhicb 51.8% has been transfered
through Tehran Stock Exchange (TSE), and 48.2% through actions and
negotiations. From the total transfered amount, 82.1% is.pertinent to three
organizations including: National Industries Organization ofIran with the
share of 45.7%, Industries and MiningBank with the share of 19.5% and
Development and Renovation Industries Organization ofIran with the
share of 16.9%. Other organizations share amounts to 17.9%. Out of
82.1% of the mentioned transfers 49.9% is pertinent to private sector and
50.1% is allocated to public enterprises, organizations and foundations. It is
noteworthing that out of 3789676 million rials transfers, only 155657
million rials (about 4.1%) has been transfered to public employers and
workers.
Journal of Economic Research (Tahghighat E Eghtesadi)
University of Tehran
00398969
33
v.
2
no.
1998
https://jte.ut.ac.ir/article_25818_5799fb7f30a41de8bb9c6a3924e3708f.pdf
An Econometric Analysis ofthe Impact ofNewExchange Policies onForeign Trade In IRAN
علیرضا رحیمی
بروجردی
author
text
article
1998
per
This paper analyzes the effects ofexchange policies on Iran,s foreign
trade, by applying new econometric techniques. In assessing the impacts of
depreciation of the national currency on macroeconomic variable, the real
rather than nominal exchange rate has been determined to be more
appropriate criterion to demonstrate the success or failure ofthe adopted
policies.
During the period under the study, trade balance improvements and its
sustainity are contingent on the persistent appreciation of the real exchange
rate (depreciation ofthe real value ofthe national currency) during the
various periods oftime. Notably, the consistency between monetary and
financial policies from one hand and exchange policies from the other hand
is a necessary condition for maintaining such appreciation.
The results of this study reveal that the lags of money stock ank import
variables will significantly explaine the change in the nonoil exports.
Furthermore, production variable, in the relevant equation, is influenced
only by its own lags. This means that, during the period under the
consideration, the monetary and exchange policies have not played an
important role in fluctuations of the production. Ultimately, within import
equation, the import will megerly be influenced by exchange rate lags. This
phenomenon can be explained by the fact during the period under the study,
import restriction, as a dominant variable, has played a key role in import
changes in Iran.
Overall, the results from the study on nonoil export,import and
production denote that exchange policies and exchange rate ,movements do
not play such an important role in changes of these variables
Journal of Economic Research (Tahghighat E Eghtesadi)
University of Tehran
00398969
33
v.
2
no.
1998
https://jte.ut.ac.ir/article_25819_b81c5279737ea0f235bdf743dc081811.pdf
A New Approach to the Predictability Analysis of Tehran Stock
Market
علی خاکی
صدیق
author
کارو
لوکس
author
حمید
خالوزاده
author
text
article
1998
per
Using nonlinear mathematical analysis, on the data obtained for.time
seriesof ShahdIran Price during 3.5 years, the characteristics,of the process
associated with this, is analysed. Analysing the behaviour of the time series
associated with returns is indicative ofits shortterm predictability nature.
However, employing analysis regarding the correlation dimension estimate.
It is indicated that, only time series ofprice (returns) is not adequate for
prediction and other appropriate variables must also be used. The
correlation dimensionestimate indicates the complexity ofthe prediction
model Also, Largest Lyapunov Exponent analysis, reveals a weakly chaotic
behaviour and indicates that price data cannot be used in the prediction
process after a certain time.
Journal of Economic Research (Tahghighat E Eghtesadi)
University of Tehran
00398969
33
v.
2
no.
1998
https://jte.ut.ac.ir/article_25820_78a67c7f489a5d2dadc517dafacc9d1f.pdf
The Interaction between the Monetary Sector and the Real Sectorthe
Case Of Iran
محسن
مهرآرا
author
text
article
1998
per
The interaction between nominal and real sectors is studied based on
estimating a simultaneous cointegrated system including foreign and
domestic prices, real output, liquidity and exchange rate variables. Two
co integrating vectors namely augmented PPP and demand for money
functions are identified. The results suggest that real output is a weakly
exogeneous variable and relatively the leading variable being the most
exogeneous ofall. All the nominal variables have to bear the burden of
shortrun adjustment (to longterm trend) endogeneously in different
proportions in order to bring the system back to its longterm equilibrium.
Our more or less broad substantive finding that output predominatly
leads(rather than lags) money supply and the other variables appear to be
consistent more with neoclassical or real business cycle approach than with
the doctrines as the structuralist. This Finding has strongpolicy implications
for any accommodative or excessive monetary expansion since it is likely to
be dissipated in terms of relatively higher nominal variables such as prices
or exchange rate rather than output.
Our more or less broad substantivefinding that output predominatly
leads(rather than lags) money supply and the other variables appearto be
consistent more with neoclassical or real business cycle approach than with
the doctrines as the structuralist. This.Finding has strong policy implications
for any accommodative or excessive monetary expansion since it is likely to
be dissipated in terms of relatively higher nominal variables such as prices
or exchange rate rather than output
Journal of Economic Research (Tahghighat E Eghtesadi)
University of Tehran
00398969
33
v.
2
no.
1998
https://jte.ut.ac.ir/article_25821_194cd3532de35b11227d2a6eb15e148d.pdf
The Calculation and Testing ofAggregation Bias in Aggregate
Demand for Investment of Private Sector in Iran
مرتضی قره
باغیان
author
غلامرضا کشاورز
حداد
author
text
article
1998
per
The problem of aggregation over micro units has had along tradition in
the econometrics Literature, streching backto the pioneering work of Theil (1954). In this Literature two issues in particular have attracted attention.
The first concentrates on the przdiction problem of choosing whether to use macro or micro equations to predict aggregate variables. This issue was raised by Grunfeld and Griliches (1960) and is further addressed in a recent paper by pesaran, pierse and kumar (1989) (P.P.K). In PPK a
generalised prediction criterion and a formal statistical test of hypothesis of perfect aggregation are developed. The present thesis considers the second accelleration mechanism, then by useing the above methods; restricted disaggregated equations are estimated. Imposition ofrestrictions, in the calculation and testing ofaggregation bias, provide intersting results. In additions the null hypothesis ofaggregation bias has been rejected in %1 significance level.
Journal of Economic Research (Tahghighat E Eghtesadi)
University of Tehran
00398969
33
v.
2
no.
1998
https://jte.ut.ac.ir/article_25822_4375b40c386f030f24503f8461e2a934.pdf

unknown
author
text
article
1998
per

Journal of Economic Research (Tahghighat E Eghtesadi)
University of Tehran
00398969
33
v.
2
no.
1998
https://jte.ut.ac.ir/article_25823_a3e440a98696044c2b0754ca706851c2.pdf