TY - JOUR ID - 54100 TI - S-Curve Analysis in Bilateral Trade Relations between Iran and its Major Trading Partners (1992-2011) JO - Journal of Economic Research (Tahghighat- E- Eghtesadi) JA - JTE LA - en SN - 0039-8969 AU - Tayebi, Seyed Komail AU - Shirazi, Homayoun AU - Sokhandani, Narges AD - Professor, Director of Center of Excellence for International Economics, University of Isfahan, Isfahan, Iran AD - PhD in Economics, Department of Economics, University of Isfahan, Isfahan, Iran AD - MA in Economics, Department of Economics, University of Isfahan, Isfahan, Iran, Y1 - 2015 PY - 2015 VL - 50 IS - 1 SP - 147 EP - 167 KW - S-Curve KW - cross correlation KW - Harberger-Larsen-Metzler effect KW - Real Exchange Rate DO - 10.22059/jte.2015.54100 N2 - National currency depreciation or appreciation has always been argued seriously among policymakers since changing in exchange rate could cause improvement or deficit in trade balance. These changes affect the trade volume of a country in both short-run and long-run. Long-run effects are recognized as the Marshall-Lerner condition, while short-run effects are analyzed by two concepts: J-Curve and S-Curve. In this study, the cross correlation has been calculated between trade balance and real exchange rate by using bilateral trade data between Iran and 21 selected trading partners over the period 1992-2011 in order to explore the existence of S-Curve in Iran. Based on the results, there is an S-Shaped curve for the Iranian trade relations with 14 major trading partners. However, this pattern does not match in relations with Syria, Pakistan, Qatar, Armenia, Kuwait, Azerbaijan, Canada, US and Hong Kong. Furthermore, the empirical results confirm Harberger-Larsen-Metzler effect in Iran`s trade relations with most of its trading partners. According to the results obtained, changes in exchange rate leads to a temporary improvement in Iran’s balance of payments, but this improvement reduces the exchange rate after a while. JEL Classification: F1، F14، O24 UR - https://jte.ut.ac.ir/article_54100.html L1 - https://jte.ut.ac.ir/article_54100_a7f288ad454346e99b9d4d161fe91d7d.pdf ER -