University of Tehran Journal of Economic Research (Tahghighat- E- Eghtesadi) 0039-8969 59 3 2024 11 21 Estimating the Phillips Curve in the Iranian Economy: New Evidence Based on Time-Frequency Analysis Estimating the Phillips Curve in the Iranian Economy: New Evidence Based on Time-Frequency Analysis 465 494 99977 10.22059/jte.2024.374946.1008906 FA Mohammad Ali Ehsani Department of Theoretical Economics, Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, University of Mazandaran, Babolsar, Iran. Saleh Taheri Bazkhaneh Department of Economics and Accounting, Faculty of Management and Economics, University of Guilan, Rasht, Iran. Hadi Keshavarz Department of Economics, Faculty of Business and Economics, Persian Gulf University, Bushehr, Iran. Journal Article 2024 04 10 This article utilizes the continuous wavelet transform and its associated tools to provide novel evidence regarding fundamental questions about the Phillips curve in the Iranian economy: slope stability, the role of expectations, and the long-run trade-off. The results indicate that the output gap's impact coefficient on inflation is not constant. Specifically, a positive effect was observed in the short run (2008-2010), while a negative effect was observed in the medium run (2000-2004) and the long run (1995-2004). Inflation expectations positively and significantly influence inflation in both the short and medium runs (2004-2013), but this effect becomes insignificant in the long run. Consequently, the slope of the Phillips curve is deemed unstable: it is negative only in the long run (1995-2004). Therefore, expectations cannot be considered a determining factor for inflation in the long run. This article utilizes the continuous wavelet transform and its associated tools to provide novel evidence regarding fundamental questions about the Phillips curve in the Iranian economy: slope stability, the role of expectations, and the long-run trade-off. The results indicate that the output gap's impact coefficient on inflation is not constant. Specifically, a positive effect was observed in the short run (2008-2010), while a negative effect was observed in the medium run (2000-2004) and the long run (1995-2004). Inflation expectations positively and significantly influence inflation in both the short and medium runs (2004-2013), but this effect becomes insignificant in the long run. Consequently, the slope of the Phillips curve is deemed unstable: it is negative only in the long run (1995-2004). Therefore, expectations cannot be considered a determining factor for inflation in the long run. https://jte.ut.ac.ir/article_99977_d24848292b4450eec2576dd17ef1d0cc.pdf