University of TehranJournal of Economic Research (Tahghighat- E- Eghtesadi)0039-896950120150421Energy Intensity in Oil and Non-oil Exporting CountriesEnergy Intensity in Oil and Non-oil Exporting Countries1205409410.22059/jte.2015.54094FAAlirezaEgbaliAssistant Professor of Economics at Payame Noor University0000-0003-0050-5693ReihanehGaskariAssistant Professor of Islamic Azad Univercity(Abadan Branch)MahdisMoradiM.A in EconomicsHadiParhiziM.A in EconomicsJournal Article20130205This paper, examines the factors that influence energy intensity- the ratio of energy consumption to GDP- in 42 oil exporting and none-oil exporting countries in the period 1985 to 2009. The research applies panel data models to analyze the impacts of oil price, GDP, exchange rate, CO<sub>2</sub> emissions, population, surface area and productivity on energy intensity. An attempt is made in this paper, to asses TFP by using DEA software and use both parametric and non-parametric statistics at the same time. The results show in both groups of countries, energy intensity reacts negatively to an increase in GDP and positively to an increase in population and surface area. The results also show that energy intensity responds positively to a hike in Exchange rate in oil producing counties and negatively in non-oil exporting countries. <br />JEL: C59, O33, Q40This paper, examines the factors that influence energy intensity- the ratio of energy consumption to GDP- in 42 oil exporting and none-oil exporting countries in the period 1985 to 2009. The research applies panel data models to analyze the impacts of oil price, GDP, exchange rate, CO<sub>2</sub> emissions, population, surface area and productivity on energy intensity. An attempt is made in this paper, to asses TFP by using DEA software and use both parametric and non-parametric statistics at the same time. The results show in both groups of countries, energy intensity reacts negatively to an increase in GDP and positively to an increase in population and surface area. The results also show that energy intensity responds positively to a hike in Exchange rate in oil producing counties and negatively in non-oil exporting countries. <br />JEL: C59, O33, Q40https://jte.ut.ac.ir/article_54094_1b4720e01c5cdc6c3d4b34dedb65bbef.pdfUniversity of TehranJournal of Economic Research (Tahghighat- E- Eghtesadi)0039-896950120150421Analyzing Dependency of Subjective Well-being in Developing Countries to Macroeconomic FactorsAnalyzing Dependency of Subjective Well-being in Developing Countries to Macroeconomic Factors21485409510.22059/jte.2015.54095FAFarhadNiliDirector of Monetary and Banking Research Institute (MBRIBehzadBabazadeh KhorasaniPhD Student in Economics, Tehran UniversityMohamad SaeidShadkarPhD Student in Economics, Tehran UniversityJournal Article20130818In macroeconomic studies, social welfare is assumed as a function of inflation and unemployment. Although the social welfare function which is dependent to unemployment and inflation variables has been used widely in macroeconomic theories, but this relation needs to be tested through empirical observations. This paper, using variables such as to economics of happiness area and subjective wellbeing data of 44 developing countries, shows the negative effect of unemployment and inflation rate on subjective well-being of these countries. Also it has been shown that 1 percent increase in total unemployment rate has more effect in decreasing welfare than a one percent inrceose in inflation rate. <br />JEL Classification:E24, E31, I38, J68, O11In macroeconomic studies, social welfare is assumed as a function of inflation and unemployment. Although the social welfare function which is dependent to unemployment and inflation variables has been used widely in macroeconomic theories, but this relation needs to be tested through empirical observations. This paper, using variables such as to economics of happiness area and subjective wellbeing data of 44 developing countries, shows the negative effect of unemployment and inflation rate on subjective well-being of these countries. Also it has been shown that 1 percent increase in total unemployment rate has more effect in decreasing welfare than a one percent inrceose in inflation rate. <br />JEL Classification:E24, E31, I38, J68, O11https://jte.ut.ac.ir/article_54095_c95ba266deb7049ea8f6ccb59f881038.pdfUniversity of TehranJournal of Economic Research (Tahghighat- E- Eghtesadi)0039-896950120150421A Survey on the Situation of Income Distribution and it’s Diversity and Impact on the Economy of Rural Households (Case Study: Alamout Region)A Survey on the Situation of Income Distribution and it’s Diversity and Impact on the Economy of Rural Households (Case Study: Alamout Region)49745409610.22059/jte.2015.54096FAAboozarParhizkariAgricultural Economics, University of ZabulMehrnooshMirzaeeAgricultural Economics, University of PNU TehranSefatollahRahmaniAgricultural Economics, University of PNU TehranMohsenAliniAssociate Professor and Committee Chairman of the Socio-economic and PromotionsJournal Article20140517Distribution and diversity of income in rural regions according to the characteristics of households and in the framework of sustainable livelihood must be investigated. In this study, in order to investigate the Status of income distribution and diversity and its impact on the economy of rural households in Alamout region Multinomial Logit Model has been used. The required dates are related to period of 2012-2013. Using the regulatory questionnaires. The required data have been collected from 127 samples household. The result shows that share of income from livestock-agricultural activities are the most important factor income inequality in Alamout region. In terms of influencing effective variables, observes the significant difference in levels one and five percent between different parts of income (agricultural, livestock, secondary and combined). Also, the result shows that coefficients of explanatory variables in Multiple Logit Model not equal with zero with the probability more than of 95 percent simultaneously that this issue shows the appropriateness of functional form in all estimates. Also, the Multinomial Logit Model significanted in high level of likelihood ratio test statistics and maximum probability values (0/079) obtained for the agricultural income sector. At the end, in order to creating income diversity for rural households and transferring income from the agriculture sector to other sectors, recommendes sufficient investment in education, coordinating redistribution activities of executive agencies and creating the small manufacturing firms in Alamout region.
JEL Classification: C35, D33, O18, R12.Distribution and diversity of income in rural regions according to the characteristics of households and in the framework of sustainable livelihood must be investigated. In this study, in order to investigate the Status of income distribution and diversity and its impact on the economy of rural households in Alamout region Multinomial Logit Model has been used. The required dates are related to period of 2012-2013. Using the regulatory questionnaires. The required data have been collected from 127 samples household. The result shows that share of income from livestock-agricultural activities are the most important factor income inequality in Alamout region. In terms of influencing effective variables, observes the significant difference in levels one and five percent between different parts of income (agricultural, livestock, secondary and combined). Also, the result shows that coefficients of explanatory variables in Multiple Logit Model not equal with zero with the probability more than of 95 percent simultaneously that this issue shows the appropriateness of functional form in all estimates. Also, the Multinomial Logit Model significanted in high level of likelihood ratio test statistics and maximum probability values (0/079) obtained for the agricultural income sector. At the end, in order to creating income diversity for rural households and transferring income from the agriculture sector to other sectors, recommendes sufficient investment in education, coordinating redistribution activities of executive agencies and creating the small manufacturing firms in Alamout region.
JEL Classification: C35, D33, O18, R12.https://jte.ut.ac.ir/article_54096_f9fd8eb3ade5a96db5c0f23916352350.pdfUniversity of TehranJournal of Economic Research (Tahghighat- E- Eghtesadi)0039-896950120150421The Effect of Foreign Direct Investment, Real Exchange Rate and Economic Liberalization on non – Oil Exporting in I.R.Iran(Using Toda Yamamoto Causality Test)The Effect of Foreign Direct Investment, Real Exchange Rate and Economic Liberalization on non – Oil Exporting in I.R.Iran(Using Toda Yamamoto Causality Test)75985409710.22059/jte.2015.54097FAKhosroPiraeeAssociate Proffesor, faculty of Economics, Islumic Azad University of ShirazMonaTasanPH.D. Student of Economics, faculty of Economics, Islumic Azad University of ShirazMohamadDaneshniaInternal Business Expert of Industry, Mine and Trade Organization, Jahrom Office,Journal Article20130822The economy's dependence on oil revenues and derivatives of these products make the country's economy heavily influenced by the volatility and instability of the pricing of these products. Therefore, it seems necessary to develop non-oil exports. This paper examines the causality relation and the effect of foreign direct investment, economic openness and real exchange rate on non-oil exporting in I.R.Iran. Using annual data covering the period 1974-2008, vector auto regressive method and Toda- Yamamoto causality test it is shown that significant and positive effect exist between openness of economy, foreign direct investment, and real exchange rate on non- oil export variable. More over the existence of a single causality relation from real exchange rate and economic openness to non–oil exporting has been proved.
JEL: F19, F21, F31, F41The economy's dependence on oil revenues and derivatives of these products make the country's economy heavily influenced by the volatility and instability of the pricing of these products. Therefore, it seems necessary to develop non-oil exports. This paper examines the causality relation and the effect of foreign direct investment, economic openness and real exchange rate on non-oil exporting in I.R.Iran. Using annual data covering the period 1974-2008, vector auto regressive method and Toda- Yamamoto causality test it is shown that significant and positive effect exist between openness of economy, foreign direct investment, and real exchange rate on non- oil export variable. More over the existence of a single causality relation from real exchange rate and economic openness to non–oil exporting has been proved.
JEL: F19, F21, F31, F41https://jte.ut.ac.ir/article_54097_db46f35a01846d856d7fcee3476f6b34.pdfUniversity of TehranJournal of Economic Research (Tahghighat- E- Eghtesadi)0039-896950120150421Estimation of Economic- Protection Value of Gavkhony Wetland Ecosystem Characteristics: Choice Experiment– Conditional LogitEstimation of Economic- Protection Value of Gavkhony Wetland Ecosystem Characteristics: Choice Experiment– Conditional Logit991275409810.22059/jte.2015.54098FAParvizJaliliPh.D. Condidate in Economics, University of IsfahanRahmanKhoshakhlaghProfessor in Economics, University of IsfahanSaeedSamadiAssociate Professor in Economics, University of IsfahanGholam HosseinKianiAssitance Professor in Economics, University of Isfahan0000-0003-2297-8782Journal Article20130126The purpose of this study is estimate the protection value of Gavkhony Wetland ecosystem attributes with use of Choice Experiment approach and Conditional Logit model. Data needed extracted from six different Choice Experiment questionnaires filled out by 500 random households in Isfahan and Varzane city. Each questionnaire contained 72 hypothetical policies (options), 36 choice sets, 2442 observations and 7327 rows of data. The results based on Conditional Logit model, Lancaster's theory of value and the theory of random utility function showed that the visitors have willingness to pay for preserve forest diversity and vegetation of wetlands, preserve of natural habitats and organisms life of wetland (birds, fish and animals), Wetland hygiene (preventing industrial, domestic and prevent effluents and water salinity) and increasing the water surface (increasing wetland water inlet), are 1080, 1670, 1460 and 559 Toman respectively. The socio- economic variables such as age, marriage, indigenous, family size, monthly family expenditure and education have positive impact on visitors willingness to pay. The results of surplus welfare calculation that calculated for ten hypothetical policies provide important practical tools for policy makers.
JEL Classification: Q51، Q53، D46، D62The purpose of this study is estimate the protection value of Gavkhony Wetland ecosystem attributes with use of Choice Experiment approach and Conditional Logit model. Data needed extracted from six different Choice Experiment questionnaires filled out by 500 random households in Isfahan and Varzane city. Each questionnaire contained 72 hypothetical policies (options), 36 choice sets, 2442 observations and 7327 rows of data. The results based on Conditional Logit model, Lancaster's theory of value and the theory of random utility function showed that the visitors have willingness to pay for preserve forest diversity and vegetation of wetlands, preserve of natural habitats and organisms life of wetland (birds, fish and animals), Wetland hygiene (preventing industrial, domestic and prevent effluents and water salinity) and increasing the water surface (increasing wetland water inlet), are 1080, 1670, 1460 and 559 Toman respectively. The socio- economic variables such as age, marriage, indigenous, family size, monthly family expenditure and education have positive impact on visitors willingness to pay. The results of surplus welfare calculation that calculated for ten hypothetical policies provide important practical tools for policy makers.
JEL Classification: Q51، Q53، D46، D62https://jte.ut.ac.ir/article_54098_2ceec3e3d615799d4d8bd06633074e80.pdfUniversity of TehranJournal of Economic Research (Tahghighat- E- Eghtesadi)0039-896950120150421The Causality of Crude Oil Price and Alternative Energy Supply (Toda and Yamamoto Test)The Causality of Crude Oil Price and Alternative Energy Supply (Toda and Yamamoto Test)1291465409910.22059/jte.2015.54099FAKioumarsHeydariAssistant Professor, Energy Economics Researcher and Direct General of Economics Survey Bureau,Journal Article20130428As a result of higher crude oil prices, in one hand, it is expected that alternative energy resources consumption is increased and consumers change their behavior to decline energy intensity too. On the other hand, more alternative energy consumption can leads to a decline of crude oil aggregate demand. Therefore, existence of mutual causality between crude oil price and alternative energy consumption is the main question of this research. To answer this question, an auto regressive model by Toda & Yamamoto test, has been used. Research data have been selected from world economics during 1969-2011. The results indicate bidirectional causality between crude oil price and alternative energy supply and no causality between energy intensity and alternative energy. Finally, the results reveal that there is a unidirectional causality from crude oil price to energy intensity.
JEL Classification: Q31,Q41,Q42As a result of higher crude oil prices, in one hand, it is expected that alternative energy resources consumption is increased and consumers change their behavior to decline energy intensity too. On the other hand, more alternative energy consumption can leads to a decline of crude oil aggregate demand. Therefore, existence of mutual causality between crude oil price and alternative energy consumption is the main question of this research. To answer this question, an auto regressive model by Toda & Yamamoto test, has been used. Research data have been selected from world economics during 1969-2011. The results indicate bidirectional causality between crude oil price and alternative energy supply and no causality between energy intensity and alternative energy. Finally, the results reveal that there is a unidirectional causality from crude oil price to energy intensity.
JEL Classification: Q31,Q41,Q42https://jte.ut.ac.ir/article_54099_612da1fbf66abed2f546bae5b849653c.pdfUniversity of TehranJournal of Economic Research (Tahghighat- E- Eghtesadi)0039-896950120150421S-Curve Analysis in Bilateral Trade Relations between Iran and its Major Trading Partners (1992-2011)S-Curve Analysis in Bilateral Trade Relations between Iran and its Major Trading Partners (1992-2011)1471675410010.22059/jte.2015.54100FASeyed KomailTayebiProfessor, Director of Center of Excellence for International Economics, University of Isfahan, Isfahan, Iran0000-0002-3047-7497HomayounShiraziPhD in Economics, Department of Economics, University of Isfahan, Isfahan, IranNargesSokhandaniMA in Economics, Department of Economics, University of Isfahan, Isfahan, Iran,Journal Article20140510National currency depreciation or appreciation has always been argued seriously among policymakers since changing in exchange rate could cause improvement or deficit in trade balance. These changes affect the trade volume of a country in both short-run and long-run. Long-run effects are recognized as the Marshall-Lerner condition, while short-run effects are analyzed by two concepts: J-Curve and S-Curve.
In this study, the cross correlation has been calculated between trade balance and real exchange rate by using bilateral trade data between Iran and 21 selected trading partners over the period 1992-2011 in order to explore the existence of S-Curve in Iran. Based on the results, there is an S-Shaped curve for the Iranian trade relations with 14 major trading partners. However, this pattern does not match in relations with Syria, Pakistan, Qatar, Armenia, Kuwait, Azerbaijan, Canada, US and Hong Kong. Furthermore, the empirical results confirm Harberger-Larsen-Metzler effect in Iran`s trade relations with most of its trading partners. According to the results obtained, changes in exchange rate leads to a temporary improvement in Iran’s balance of payments, but this improvement reduces the exchange rate after a while.
JEL Classification: F1، F14، O24National currency depreciation or appreciation has always been argued seriously among policymakers since changing in exchange rate could cause improvement or deficit in trade balance. These changes affect the trade volume of a country in both short-run and long-run. Long-run effects are recognized as the Marshall-Lerner condition, while short-run effects are analyzed by two concepts: J-Curve and S-Curve.
In this study, the cross correlation has been calculated between trade balance and real exchange rate by using bilateral trade data between Iran and 21 selected trading partners over the period 1992-2011 in order to explore the existence of S-Curve in Iran. Based on the results, there is an S-Shaped curve for the Iranian trade relations with 14 major trading partners. However, this pattern does not match in relations with Syria, Pakistan, Qatar, Armenia, Kuwait, Azerbaijan, Canada, US and Hong Kong. Furthermore, the empirical results confirm Harberger-Larsen-Metzler effect in Iran`s trade relations with most of its trading partners. According to the results obtained, changes in exchange rate leads to a temporary improvement in Iran’s balance of payments, but this improvement reduces the exchange rate after a while.
JEL Classification: F1، F14، O24https://jte.ut.ac.ir/article_54100_a7f288ad454346e99b9d4d161fe91d7d.pdfUniversity of TehranJournal of Economic Research (Tahghighat- E- Eghtesadi)0039-896950120150421Degree of Exchange Rate Pass-through onConsumerPrices underExchange Rate Misalignment: The Case Study of IranDegree of Exchange Rate Pass-through onConsumerPrices underExchange Rate Misalignment: The Case Study of Iran1691925410110.22059/jte.2015.54101FAAlirezaKazerooniProfessor, Economics Department, University of TabrizFatemeSolaimani AlvangM.A.in Economics, University of TabrizJournal Article20130227The main objective of this paper is to investigate the impact of exchange rate pass-through on consumer prices under exchange rate misalignment in Iran during 1353-1387. For this purpose, the exchange rate misalignment has been extracted using ARDL method and then the effect of exchange rate and exchange rate misalignment on CPI has been estimated. The results show that the degree of exchange rate pass-through (ERPT) in the short termisverysmallandequal to0,07and in the long-run ERPT is equal to 0,42. It indicatesthat the impact of the ERPT on the CPI in long run is more thanthe short run in Iran.Also, the resultsshow that exchange rate misalignment increases the Consumer Price Index.The main objective of this paper is to investigate the impact of exchange rate pass-through on consumer prices under exchange rate misalignment in Iran during 1353-1387. For this purpose, the exchange rate misalignment has been extracted using ARDL method and then the effect of exchange rate and exchange rate misalignment on CPI has been estimated. The results show that the degree of exchange rate pass-through (ERPT) in the short termisverysmallandequal to0,07and in the long-run ERPT is equal to 0,42. It indicatesthat the impact of the ERPT on the CPI in long run is more thanthe short run in Iran.Also, the resultsshow that exchange rate misalignment increases the Consumer Price Index.https://jte.ut.ac.ir/article_54101_cefa3d2186c00ce2b675529970cb4be9.pdfUniversity of TehranJournal of Economic Research (Tahghighat- E- Eghtesadi)0039-896950120150421Comparing of Demand Systems in explaining of Iranian Urban Households consumption behaviourComparing of Demand Systems in explaining of Iranian Urban Households consumption behaviour1932165410210.22059/jte.2015.54102FAParvizMohamadzadehAssociate Professor, Economics Department, University of TabrizDavoodBehboodiAssociate Professor, Economics Department, University of TabrizSamadHekmati FaridAssistant Professor, Economics Department, University of UrmiaJournal Article20130630Selection of best demand model for explaining of consumer behaviour is one of the most important issues in Microeconomic. In this paper we introduce AIDS<sup><sup>[1]</sup></sup>,CBS<sup><sup>[2]</sup></sup>, NBR<sup><sup>[3]</sup></sup> and Rotterdam model and estimate these models by Iranian urban households data for period 1973-2012.Seemingly Unrelated Regression Method is chosen for estimation of 5 Groups of Commodities including Food, Housing, clothing, appliances and furniture and miscellaneous. In this survey we calculate price and income elasticity for 5 commodity groups and we test Homogeneity and Symmetry conditions in each model.
Results indicate that NBR Model is the best model for satisfying demand attributes in Iran.
JEL:D11, D12
<br clear="all" />
[1] - Almost Ideal Demand System
[2] - Central Bureau Voor de Statistiek, the Dutch name of Statistics Netherlands
[3] - The National Bureau of ResearchSelection of best demand model for explaining of consumer behaviour is one of the most important issues in Microeconomic. In this paper we introduce AIDS<sup><sup>[1]</sup></sup>,CBS<sup><sup>[2]</sup></sup>, NBR<sup><sup>[3]</sup></sup> and Rotterdam model and estimate these models by Iranian urban households data for period 1973-2012.Seemingly Unrelated Regression Method is chosen for estimation of 5 Groups of Commodities including Food, Housing, clothing, appliances and furniture and miscellaneous. In this survey we calculate price and income elasticity for 5 commodity groups and we test Homogeneity and Symmetry conditions in each model.
Results indicate that NBR Model is the best model for satisfying demand attributes in Iran.
JEL:D11, D12
<br clear="all" />
[1] - Almost Ideal Demand System
[2] - Central Bureau Voor de Statistiek, the Dutch name of Statistics Netherlands
[3] - The National Bureau of Researchhttps://jte.ut.ac.ir/article_54102_818aae9d5ff15232a9fba7fec0398145.pdfUniversity of TehranJournal of Economic Research (Tahghighat- E- Eghtesadi)0039-896950120150421Using of the Bayesian Causal Map In Order to Investigate the Effective Factors on Inflation in the Iranian EconomyUsing of the Bayesian Causal Map In Order to Investigate the Effective Factors on Inflation in the Iranian Economy2172525410310.22059/jte.2015.54103FASomayyehNaghaviPh.D. Student of Agricultural Economics,Ferdowsi University of MashhadNaserShahnoushiProfessor of Agricultural Economics,Ferdowsi University of MashhadJournal Article20140215One of the most important objectives of any economic system is to achieve to low and stable inflation and sustained economic growth. In this study, first, Bayesian causal is indentified effective factors on inflation and then using Bayesian causal network and Determining prior probabilities and posterior probabilities in different scenarios,it is discussed The impacts of this factors on inflation in the Iranian economy. Sensitivity analysis show The relationship of inflation to budget deficit, ratio private credit to gross domestic production, government debt, exchange rate, govement size and interest rate is positive and with economic growth is negative. Then, it is recommended if government budget is independence from oil revenues, there is hope that Central bank independence can be a step towards disinflation in the Iranian economy.
JEL Classification: E3, E31One of the most important objectives of any economic system is to achieve to low and stable inflation and sustained economic growth. In this study, first, Bayesian causal is indentified effective factors on inflation and then using Bayesian causal network and Determining prior probabilities and posterior probabilities in different scenarios,it is discussed The impacts of this factors on inflation in the Iranian economy. Sensitivity analysis show The relationship of inflation to budget deficit, ratio private credit to gross domestic production, government debt, exchange rate, govement size and interest rate is positive and with economic growth is negative. Then, it is recommended if government budget is independence from oil revenues, there is hope that Central bank independence can be a step towards disinflation in the Iranian economy.
JEL Classification: E3, E31https://jte.ut.ac.ir/article_54103_de139701c6b3e6dea21af85467d7e3c1.pdf