https://jte.ut.ac.ir/ Journal of Economic Research (Tahghighat- E- Eghtesadi) en daily 1 Mon, 22 Jun 2026 00:00:00 +0330 Mon, 22 Jun 2026 00:00:00 +0330 https://jte.ut.ac.ir/article_107295.html This study aims to provide an integrated model to explain the role of the Iran Commodity Exchange (IME) in organizing foreign trade, emphasizing Free and Special Economic Zones. The research employed a sequential exploratory mixed-methods approach (qualitative-quantitative). In the qualitative phase, data were collected through semi-structured interviews with 15 key stakeholder experts (managers from the Commodity Exchange, foreign trade sectors, and Free Zones) and analyzed using thematic analysis. In the quantitative phase, data were gathered using a researcher-made questionnaire developed from the qualitative findings and analyzed by integrating Structural Equation Modeling (SEM) and the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP). The final model was designed and validated across five dimensions and twelve components. AHP results indicated that the components of "information transparency" (weight: 0.49) and "infrastructure development" (weight: 0.23) held the highest priority. The analyses revealed that the Commodity Exchange's role in this model is primarily played by creating a platform for integrating and facilitating the realization of these key requirements. The results indicate that strengthening the Commodity Exchange's role in organizing foreign trade through intelligent coordination with Free Zones requires an immediate focus on enhancing information transparency and developing integrated infrastructure. The success of this model depends on addressing institutional challenges (legal, customs-related, inter-organizational coordination) and redefining the role of the Exchange's export trading ring as a facilitating platform https://jte.ut.ac.ir/article_107732.html This study investigates the performance of five equity exchange-traded funds (ETFs) listed on the Tehran Stock Exchange in forecasting daily volatility using various models based on the Heterogeneous Autoregressive (HAR) framework. The primary objective is to assess the impact of Long Memory (LM), Markov Switching (MS), and Jump (J) components on improving model accuracy. The findings reveal that the baseline HAR model alone has limited explanatory power for volatility, while incorporating advanced components—particularly LM and MS—significantly enhances model performance in most cases. Results indicate that long memory plays a pivotal role in most funds and is the most influential factor in improving forecasts for funds with more stable volatility patterns (e.g., “Asas”), whereas the combination of LM and MS yields superior performance for funds with more variable volatility structures (e.g., “Sarv” and “Atlas”). The jump component shows a limited and fund-specific effect, contributing to improvements only in certain cases—most notably when combined with LM and MS in funds such as “Aghas” and “Karadis.” These findings highlight the importance of selecting flexible, combined models tailored to the behavioral characteristics of each fund and suggest that fund managers should focus on identifying high-risk regimes and long-term volatility patterns for enhanced risk management. https://jte.ut.ac.ir/article_107736.html This study examines the impact of bilateral tariff liberalization between Iran and BRICS Plus members on Iran’s trade balance, exports, and imports using a multiregional computable general equilibrium model based on the Global Trade Analysis Project framework and the version 10 database. The model is calibrated to accurately reproduce the base-year equilibrium of the Iranian economy and its trade structure, ensuring internal consistency between observed data and simulated outcomes. A set of comparative-static tariff reduction scenarios, ranging from partial to full liberalization, is implemented to capture the structural responses of trade flows to changes in trade policy. The simulation results indicate that reciprocal tariff reductions lead to a significant expansion in Iran’s total trade volume. Exports increase across all major sectors, with the strongest response observed in the industrial sector, followed by agriculture, reflecting improved market access and enhanced price competitiveness. At the same time, imports rise more rapidly than exports, particularly in industrial intermediate and capital goods, due to high substitution elasticities and strong input linkages within the production structure. As a consequence, Iran’s trade balance deteriorates across all liberalization scenarios, despite the observed expansion in exports. These findings highlight the structural characteristics of the Iranian economy within the BRICS Plus trade framework and underscore the importance of accompanying trade liberalization with policies aimed at improving domestic productive capacity and export composition. The results provide policy-relevant insights into the trade effects of Iran’s participation in BRICS Plus under static general equilibrium conditions. https://jte.ut.ac.ir/article_107350.html In economics, auctions are among the most important methods for resource allocation. If designed appropriately, they can achieve the mechanism designer’s objectives, such as efficiency in the price discovery process or revenue maximization. Currently, the Iran Mercantile Exchange (IME) is one of the country’s most significant commodity trading platforms, utilizing auction mechanisms to allocate goods among buyers. Recently, a simultaneous auction method (a type of sealed-bid auction) has been proposed for the cement sector to replace the open auction. Despite the alteration in the auction framework, its pricing rule remains unchanged and continues to follow a discriminatory pricing rule. The objective of this study is to investigate whether a uniform or a discriminatory pricing rule yields higher revenues for sellers. To examine the effects of changing the auction method, this study employs an agent-based model along with auction data from October 2024. The results indicate that as the demand-to-supply ratio increases, or as competition intensifies within the auction, the revenue generated from the uniform price auction surpasses that of the discriminatory price auction. https://jte.ut.ac.ir/article_107680.html With the significant expansion of studies in the field of microfinance, conceptual fragmentation, diversity of implementation approaches, and lack of theoretical coherence have made it difficult to design comprehensive models and effective policies. The lack of structured reviews and bibliometric analyses has limited the ability to accurately understand the evolution of topics, key contributors, and research foci. To fill this gap, this article, using a bibliometric method and systematic review, extracts microfinance-related data from the Web of Science database between 1982 and 2023 and analyzes them with VOSviewer software. The results indicate the formation of three main clusters, including the dynamics of inclusive microfinance systems (with an emphasis on financial inclusion and banking access), governance and sustainability in microfinance institutions (with a focus on financial efficiency and performance), and microcredit and social empowerment pathways (including poverty reduction and women's empowerment). Frequent terms such as “microfinance,” “fintech,” and “poverty” indicate the conceptual focus of the research, while co-citation patterns confirm the paradigmatic dynamism of the field. Time trend analysis shows that approaches related to financial technologies and digital inclusion have grown significantly since 2015. By identifying gaps such as the lack of attention to lived experiences and gender analysis of financial institutions, the need for interdisciplinary frameworks and policy-oriented studies in the future is emphasized. https://jte.ut.ac.ir/article_107681.html The effectiveness of the interest rate as a policy instrument for controlling inflation in Iran has long been a subject of debate. Drawing on the macroeconomic tradition initiated by Knut Wicksell, this study argues that the real interest rate is stationary in the long run and has no significant impact on inflation. In contrast, in the short run, a negative relationship exists between inflation and the real interest rate, consistent with contemporary monetary policy frameworks. To examine this relationship, expected inflation for the period 1394(8)-1404(8) is first estimated using a rolling VAR model based on key macroeconomic variables. This estimate is then used to construct the real interest rate by adjusting the nominal interest rate for inflation expectations. Subsequently, an ARDL approach is employed to investigate both short-run and long-run dynamics. The empirical results indicate that the real interest rate has no statistically significant effect on inflation in the long run, whereas it exerts a significant negative effect in the short run. These findings suggest that the interest rate is an effective tool for inflation control primarily in the short run. Moreover, the results are robust across alternative model specifications. https://jte.ut.ac.ir/article_107917.html TEPIX is a weighted average of market capitals, and known as market representative. On the other hand, the equal-weighted index was proposed as representative of all issuers with same weights, which can have a trend in favor of or against the TEPIX. The present study examines the impact of large-cap stocks on the capital market. This study measures the effect of the 30 large-cap stocks, as a representative of the stock prices of large capital market companies, on TEPIX and equal-weighted indices, by controlling the variables of trading value, exchange rate, and interest rate. Daily data in the period from 01/08/1399 to 01/03/1404 and two approaches have been considered: the ordinary least squares and Threshold Regression using the first difference of the variable. Based on the findings, by using first approach, the index of 30 large-cap stocks has a positive and significant effect on TEPIX and explains its behavior well, expectedly. The effect of large-cap stocks on the equal-weighted index is also positive, but its coefficient shows much weaker effect, which is about 25 percent of its effect on the TEPIX. By using threshold approach and after selecting the exchange rate growth variable as the transition variable and determining the threshold for the two exchange rate growth regimes and its reduction, the coefficient of the index of 30 large-cap stocks on TEPIX in the low regime is about 3.5 times its coefficient on the equal-weighted index, but in the high regime, the coefficient of the index of 30 large-cap stocks on TEPIX is half of that coefficient on the equal-weighted index.