Journal of Economic Research (Tahghighat- E- Eghtesadi)

Journal of Economic Research (Tahghighat- E- Eghtesadi)

Analysis of the Impacts of Internal and External Conflicts on the Ecological Footprint in Iran and Iraq

Document Type : Research Paper

Authors
1 Department of Economics, Faculty of Humanities and Social Sciences, University of Kurdistan, Sanandaj, Iran.
2 Department of Economics, Faculty of Humanities and Social Sciences, University of Kurdistan, Sanandaj, Iran
3 Faculty of Humanities and Social Sciences, University of Kurdistan, Sanandaj, Iran.
Abstract
The ecological footprint, as an indicator of human pressure on natural resources and the Earth’s biocapacity, plays a critical role in assessing the sustainability of development. In Iran and Iraq, water scarcity, agricultural land degradation, heavy dependence on oil, and climate change are among the main drivers of rising ecological footprints. Pressure on vital resources not only threatens food security and reduces social welfare but also heightens the risk of internal conflict by intensifying social grievances and ethnic or regional tensions. This study aims to investigate the impact of internal and external conflicts on the ecological footprint in Iran and Iraq over the period 1990–2024, using the Dynamic Ordinary Least Squares (DOLS) method. The empirical results indicate that although a reduction in the risk of internal and external conflicts contributes to improved security and economic growth in both countries, it simultaneously increases the ecological footprint—an effect that is more pronounced in Iraq due to its greater dependence on oil and its longer history of instability. GDP per capita growth, urbanization, and energy consumption show positive and statistically significant relationships with ecological footprint growth in both countries; however, the intensity of the effects differs. In Iran, the impact of energy consumption and urbanization is stronger, whereas in Iraq, economic growth and foreign trade exert a greater influence. The findings further suggest that good governance plays an important role in reducing the ecological footprint, with a stronger effect observed in Iran.
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Articles in Press, Accepted Manuscript
Available Online from 23 September 2026

  • Receive Date 17 November 2025
  • Revise Date 23 September 2026
  • Accept Date 23 September 2026