Journal of Economic Research (Tahghighat- E- Eghtesadi)

Journal of Economic Research (Tahghighat- E- Eghtesadi)

Analyzing Central Bank Responses to Exchange Rate Volatility in Iran

Document Type : Research Paper

Authors
1 Faculty of Economics, University of Shiraz, Iran
2 Associated Professor, Faculty of Economics, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran
Abstract
In this paper, based on a new Keynesian structure, we have analyzed monetary policy response to exchange rate volatilities in Iran. For this purpose, first, exchange rate derived from equilibrium condition in exchange market and then two different models have been estimated. Assumption on the first model is that central bank responses to exchange rate volatilities and the assumption on the second model is that central bank does not response. To opt proper model, Bayes factor and Likelihood ratio tests have been used. The results show that, first model is a better model in describing central bank’s behaviour. In other words, central bank has responded to exchange rate volatilities its coefficient in the monetary rule is -0.12. So, when central bank faces with an exchange rate shock, chooses contractionary monetary policy. This result is consistent with the results from model simulations.
Keywords

Volume 49, Issue 1 - Serial Number 1
Spring 2014
Pages 137-154

  • Receive Date 18 June 2013
  • Revise Date 23 June 2014
  • Accept Date 09 February 2014