The Causality of Crude Oil Price and Alternative Energy Supply (Toda and Yamamoto Test)

Document Type : Research Paper

Author

Assistant Professor, Energy Economics Researcher and Direct General of Economics Survey Bureau,

Abstract

As a result of higher crude oil prices, in one hand, it is expected that alternative energy resources consumption is increased and consumers change their behavior to decline energy intensity too. On the other hand, more alternative energy consumption can leads to a decline of crude oil aggregate demand. Therefore, existence of mutual causality between crude oil price and alternative energy consumption is the main question of this research. To answer this question, an auto regressive model by Toda & Yamamoto test, has been used. Research data have been selected from world economics during 1969-2011. The results indicate bidirectional causality between crude oil price and alternative energy supply and no causality between energy intensity and alternative energy. Finally, the results reveal that there is a unidirectional causality from crude oil price to energy intensity.
JEL Classification: Q31,Q41,Q42

Keywords

References

منابع

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History

  • Receive Date: 28 April 2013
  • Revise Date: 05 July 2015
  • Accept Date: 30 September 2014

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