The Impact of International Sanctions on Iran's Economy 1391-1392

Document Type : Research Paper

Abstract

We describe a simple model that fits well with Iranian economy, and extends a methodology which Chary at el. (2007) demonstrated. In addition to four traditional wedges, we introduce additional Trade wedge. We then evaluate the contribution of these wedges to the fluctuations in Iran during last three years. Because of international sanction, trading cost increases, and firms have difficulty to importing intermediate goods, which is used in production lines. The significance of which is measured by Trade wedge. The results show that efficiency wedge accounts fluctuations in output. Trade wedge unable to explain fluctuations in output, but by extracting the effect of the fluctuation of nominal exchange rate it accounts for recession in 2013. The fluctuation of nominal exchange rate in 2012 is the cause of increase in trade barrier, and international santions are the cause of increase in trade barrier in 2013.  
JEL Classification: E32; E37

Keywords


  1. رحمتی، محمد حسین، مدنی‌زاده، سید علی، جباری، مسعود و کریمی‌راد، علی (۱۳۹۵). حسابداری چرخه‌های تجاری: رکود تورمی ایران، فصلنامة برنامه و بودجه.

  2. Bernanke, B., Gertler, M., & Gilchrist, S. (1997). The financial accelerator and the flight to quality, National Bureau of Economic Research, 4789.

  3. Bordo, Michael D., Erceg, Christopher J., & Evans, Charles N. (1997). Money, sticky wages, and the Great Depression, National Bureau of Economic Research, 6071.

  4. Chari, Varadarajan V., Kehoe, Patrick J., & McGrattan,  Ellen R. (2007). Business cycle accounting, Econometrica 75.3, 781-836.

  5. Chari, Varadarajan V., Kehoe, Patrick J., & McGrattan, Ellen R.  (2005). Sudden stops and outputd drops, AER,95.2,381-400

  6. Chari, Varadarajan V., Kehoe, Patrick J., & McGrattan, Ellen R. (2002). Can sticky price models generate volatile and persistent real exchange rates?, The Review of Economic Studies, 69.3, 533-563.

  7. Cole, Harold L., & Ohanian, Lee E. (2004). New Deal policies and the persistence of the Great Depression: A general equilibrium analysis, Journal of Political Economy, 112.4, 779-816.

  8. Ebrahimain, M. (2015). Calibrating a Dynamic General Equilibrium Model for Iran’s Economy

  9. Gali, J. (1996). Technology, employment, and the business cycle: Do technology shocks explain aggregate fluctuations, National bureau of economic research, 5721.

  10. Galı, Jordi., Lopez - Salido,  D., & Valles, J. (2003). Technology shocks and monetary policy: assessing the Fed's performance, Journal of Monetary Economics, 50.4, 723-741.

  11. Hevia, Constantino  (2014). Emerging market fluctuations: what makes the difference?, Journal of International Economics, 94.1, 33-49.

  12. Kydland, Finn E., & Prescott, Edward C. (1982). Time to build and aggregate fluctuations, Econometrica: Journal of the Econometric Society, 1348-1370

  13.  Rahmati, M., & Rothert, J. (2011). Business Cycle Accounting in a Small Open Economy. Mimeo, University of Texas at Austin.