Relationship between Functional Income Distribution and Aggregate Demand in Iran based on the Post Keynesian Model

Document Type : Research Paper

Authors

1 Professor of Econometrics & Social Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Semnan.

2 PhD student of Semnan University

Abstract

The main aim in this research has been to determining the growth regime in Iran based on an open economy concerning the Bhaduri and Marglin(1990) model.  This model which has been widely used in Post Keynesian economics is a Kaleckian-Post Keynesian macroeconomic model which is based on effective demand. Bhaduri and Marglin(1990) concerning wage as a cost item as well as a component of aggregate demand have considered both profit-led and wage-led regimes to study the effect of functional distribution of income on aggregate demand.  Considering gross operating surplus, compensation to employees, consumption expenditures, investment expenditures, capacity utilization, profit share, nominal currency rate and net exports, the impact of variation of profit share on consumption expenditures share, investment expenditures share and net export share of GDP, was first evaluated in a single equation for 1979 to 2013. Then, the total impact of profit share on total demand was estimated summing up the partial effects. The results show that redistribution in favor of profits results in reduction of consumption expenditures share, increase of investment expenditures share, and also increase in net export share of GDP. Based on the results, the regime of domestic demand in Iran is profit-led, and due to positive impact of profit share on international competitiveness, the total demand regime is also concluded to be profit-led.
 JEL Classifications: E12, E20, E22, E25

Keywords


  1. Bhaduri, A., & Marglin, S. A. (1990). Unemployment and the Real Wage: the Economic Basis for Contesting Political Ideologies, Cambridge Journal of Economics, 14(4): 375-393.

  2. Blecker, R. (1989). International Competition, Income Distribution and Economic Growth, Cambridge Journal of Economics, 13: 395-412.

  3. Blecker, R. (1999). Kaleckian macromodels for open economies, In Foundations of international economics: Post Keynesian perspectives, ed. J. Deprez and J. Harvey. London and New York: Routledge.

  4. Bowles, S., & Boyer, R. (1995). Wages, aggregate demand, and employment in an open economy: an empirical investigation in G Epstein and H Gintis (eds): Macroeconomic Policy after the Conservative Era. Studies in Investment, Saving and Finance (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press). Cambridge, M. A. (1934). Harvard University Press. Economics, 29: 213-248.

  5. Ederer, S., & Stockhammer, E.  (2007). Wages and aggregate demand in France: An empirical investigation, in Hein, E. and Truger, A. (eds), Money, Distribution, and Economic Policy – Alternatives to Orthodox Macroeconomics, Cheltenham, Edward Elgar, 138–140.

  6. Gordon, D. (1995a). Growth distribution and the rules of the game: social structuralist macro foundations for a democratic economic policy, in: Epstein, G., & Gintis, H. (eds): Macroeconomic Policy After the Conservative Era. Studies in Investment, Saving and Finance, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge/UK.

  7. Gordon, D. (1995b). Putting the horse (back) before the cart: disentangeling the macro relationship between investment and saving, in: Epstein, G., Gintis, H. (eds): Macroeconomic Policy After the Conservative Era. Studies in Investment, Saving and Finance, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge/UK.

  8. Harvey, A., & Trimbur, T.  (2008). Trend estimation and the Hodrik-Prescott Filter. J. Japan Statist. Soc. 38(1): 41-49.

  9. Hein, E., & Ochsen, C. (2003). Regimes of interest rates, income shares, savings, and investment: a Kaleckian model and empirical estimations for some advanced OECD-economies, Metroeconomica, 54: 404-433.

  10. Hein, E., & Krämer, H. (1997). Income shares and capital formation: patterns of recent developments, Journal of Income Distribution, 7(1): 5-28.

  11. Hein, E., & Vogel, L.  (2008). Distribution and Growth Reconsidered: Empirical Results for Six OECD Countries, Cambridge Journal of Economics, 32: 479-511.

  12. Jetin, B., & Kurt, O.  (2011). Functional Income Distribution and Growth in Thailand: Single Equation Estimations Based on Bhaduri/Marglin Model, Annual Conference of the Research Network Macroeconomics and Macroeconomic Policies, October 28-29, Berlin.

  13. Kalecki, M. (1954). Theory of Economic Dynamics, Allen and Unwin, London.

  14. Kalecki, M. (1971). Selected Essays on the Dynamics of the Capitalist Economy 1933-70. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.

  15. Keynes, J. M. (1973). The General Theory of Employment, Interest, and Money, Reprint, London-Basingstoke, Macmillan.

  16. Molero Simarro, R. (2011). Functional Distribution of Income and Economic Growth in the Chinese Economy, 1978-2007, School of Oriental and African Studies, Department of Economics Working Papers, No.168.

  17. Naastepad, C.W.M., & Storm, S.  (2006/7). OECD demand regimes (1960-2000), Journal of Post-Keynesian, 29(2): 211-246.

  18. Naastepad, R. (2006). Technology, demand and dstrrbution: a cumulative growth model with an application to the Dutch productivity slowdown, Cambridge Journal of Economics, 30(3): 403-434.

  19. Onaran, Ö., & Stockhammer, E. (2005). Do Profits affect Investment and Employment ?an Empirical Test based on the Bhaduri –Marglin Model, Working Papers Series "Growth and Employment in Europe: Sustainability and Competitiveness", 44.

  20. Onaran, Ö., & Galanis, G. (2012). Is aggregate demand wage-led or profit-led? National and global effects, ILO Working Papers, Conditions of Work and Employment Series No. 40, Geneva.

  21. Steindl, J. (1952). Maturity and Stagnation in American Capitalism, Basil Blackwell, Oxford. 

  22. Stockhammer, E., & Onaran, Ö. (2004). Accumulation, distribution and employment: a structural VAR approach to a post-Keynesian macro model, Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, 15: 421-447.

  23. Stockhammer, E., Onaran, Ö., & Ederer, S. (2007). Functional Income Distribution and Aggregate Demand in the Euro Area, Working Paper No. 102, Feb. 2007, Vienna University of Economics and B.A.

  24. Stockhammer, E., Onaran, O., & Ederer, S.  (2009). Functional income distribution and aggregate demand in the Euro area, Cambridge Journal of Economics, 33(1): 139-159.

  25. Yentürk, N., & Onaran, Ö. (2001). Do Low Wages Stimulate Investments? An Analysis of the Relationship between Wages and Investments in Turkish Manufacturing Industry, International Review of Applied Economics, forthcoming.