Journal of Economic Research (Tahghighat- E- Eghtesadi)

Journal of Economic Research (Tahghighat- E- Eghtesadi)

Simulation of Changes in the Supply and Unemployment of Highly Educated Population in 2016- 2025

Document Type : Research Paper

Authors
Mostafa Dinmohammadi 1
maryam narimani bonab 2
fahmideh Ghorbani 2
1 Department of Economics, Faculty of Humanities, University of Zanjan
2 Graduated in M.S of Economics, University of Zanjan
10.22059/jte.2017.225192.1007458
Abstract
The current study has been simulated the population of higher education and unemployed  highly educated people by dy dynamic system method for the period 2016-2025 in Iran.
Simulation of a higher educated population is based on changes in the total population, supply of the population of students, economic factors affecting the higher education demand and the ratio of labor force to the number of students. Results show in the baseline scenario (continue the status quo) student population will be decreased from 4.8 million in 2016 to 3.5 million in 2025. The main reasons for the decline in student population, are decrease in the high school student population and reduce in the number of people 18 and 19 years old.
Baed on the simulation of the model the number of educated unemployed population increase from 1 million in 2016 to 2.4 million in the year 2025 even if the economy achieves a high economic growth.
JEL Classification: I23, C61, C63
Keywords
dynamic system
supply and demand for higher education
Unemployment
Subjects
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  • Receive Date 16 January 2017
  • Revise Date 04 September 2017
  • Accept Date 26 December 2017