Investigating of Fiscal Policy Sustainability in Iran, by Markov Switching Unit Root Test

Document Type : Research Paper

Authors

1 Associate Professor in Economics, Kharazmi University, Economic Department, Tehran, Iran

2 MSc Student of Economic and Social Systems, Kharazmi University, Economic Department, Tehran, Iran

Abstract

Because of the importance of the state of financial stability in the economy and its impact on economic growth, we tried to test the fiscal sustainability in Iran by using the nonlinear Markov Switching unit root test from 1973 to 2017. The results obtained from the linear and nonlinear unit root tests show that the fiscal state is unstable in two different regimes entitled high and low fluctuations, and the fiscal policy during the studied period has been experienced an unstable situation. In other words, increasing government debt at a given period has not declined over time and has accumulated in the coming years, and government fiscal policies, regardless of accumulated debt compensation, expands spending policies. Therefore, serious consideration of this issue and formulation of fiscal policy, especially budgeting and strengthening of long-term government debt repayment paths to achieve financial sustainability status, is one of the policy recommendations of this paper for economic planners and decision-makers in Iran. Also, it is expected that, regardless of these considerations, the Iranian economy has always suffered from the accumulation of government debts over time.
JEL Classification: E62, H61, C22

Keywords

References

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Journal of Economic Research (Tahghighat- E- Eghtesadi)
Volume 55, Issue 2 - Serial Number 131
September 2020
Pages 437-462

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History

  • Receive Date: 11 November 2019
  • Revise Date: 20 April 2020
  • Accept Date: 13 May 2020

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