Implementation of Credit Easing Policy to Settle the Government's Debt with Commercial Banks: A Stock-Flow Consistent Framework

Document Type : Research Paper

Authors

1 Department of Economic Sciences, Faculty of Economics, Allameh Tabataba'i University, Tehran, Iran

2 Department of Economic Sciences, Faculty of Economics, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran

Abstract

The government's indebtedness to banks stands as one of Iran's most pressing issues within its monetary and banking system. This predicament has precipitated several adverse consequences, including the cost of funds for banks, elevated interest rates on loans, an unrestrained surge in the money supply, and a diminishing capacity for banks to extend loans. To tackle this challenge, some economists with emphasis on endogenous nature of money, propose a remedy grounded in credit easing. this approach entails settling the government's debt to banks by effecting adjustments on the asset side of the Central Bank's balance sheet. However, the practical execution of this policy hinges on the utilization of Central Bank resources, raising concerns about a sudden surge in money supply and potential adverse impacts on other economic variables, notably inflation. This has cast doubt on the feasibility of implementing such a strategy. In this research, we delved into the fundamental principles and prerequisites of adopting the credit easing policy in Iran. To evaluate the potential outcomes of implementing this policy, we employ the stock flow consistent model. Our findings reveal that settling the government's debt to banks through the utilization of Central Bank resources leads to an expansion in the monetary base, a reduction in money supply, an upswing in real GDP, and a decrease in both inflation and interest rates when juxtaposed with the baseline scenario.
JEL Classification: E17, E60, E12

Keywords

Main Subjects


  1. بدری، احمد و زمان‌زاده، حمید (1396). تحلیل آثار ناترازی ترازنامه نظام بانکی بر متغیرهای پولی و راهکارهای تعدیل این ناترازی. پژوهش‌های پولی بانکی، 10 (34)، 656-621.
  2. عسگری ده‌آبادی، محمدمهدی و نصیری اقدم، علی (1398). مدل‌های تطبیق روانه - انباره در اقتصاد کلان. دو فصلنامه مطالعات و سیاست‌های اقتصادی. 6 (12)، 75-104.
  3. شریف‌زاده، محمدجواد (1394). معمای نرخ سود بانکی: کالبدشکافی بحران اعسار در برخی نهادهای مالی مجاز. گزارش پژوهشی مرکز پژوهش‌های مجلس شورای اسلامی.
  4. حسینی دولت‌آبادی، سید مهدی (1395). ماهیت بانک و دلالت‌های آن برای مطالعات بانکداری اسلامی. دو فصلنامه علمی پژوهشی مطالعات اقتصاد اسلامی، 8 (16)، 198–
  5. نصیری اقدم، علی و عسگری ده‌آبادی، محمدمهدی (1396)، سیاست تسهیل کمی و امکان‌پذیری اجرای آن در ایران به‌منظور برون‌رفت از بحران بانکی. بیست‌وهشتمین همایش بانکداری اسلامی، تهران.
  6. عبداللهی‌پور، محمدصادق و بت‌شکن، محمدهاشم (1399). راهکارهای بازسازی مالی بانک‌ها در ایران. فصلنامه علمی مدیریت دارایی و تأمین مالی. 8 (31)، 1-20.
  7. محمد طالبی (1395). شناسایی و ارزیابی عوامل مؤثر بر چالش‌های نظام بانکی ایران. بهبود مدیریت. 10 (33)، 166-131.
  8. Meijers, H. & Muysken, J., (2016). The impact of quantitative easing in the Netherlands: A stock-flow consistent approach, MERIT Working Papers 2016-067, United Nations University - Maastricht Economic and Social Research Institute on Innovation and Technology (MERIT)
  9. Nikiforos, M., & Zezza, G. (2017). Stock-flow Consistent Macroeconomic Models: A Survey, Working Paper No. 891, Levy Economics Institute.
  10. Abdollahi Poor,M. S.& Botshekan, M. H. (2016). Solutions for Financial Restructuring in Iranian Banks. Journal of Asset Management and Financing, 8(31),1-20. (in persian).
  11. Arslan, Y.; Drehmann, M.; Hofmann, B. (2020). Central bank bond purchases in emerging market economies, BIS Bulletin.
  12. Asgari Dehabadi, M. M., Nassiri Aghdam, A. (2019). Stock flow consistent models in macroeconomic. The Journal of Economic Studies and Policies, 6 (2), 75-104. (in persian).
  13. Badri, A., Zamanzadeh, H. (2017). Analysis of the effects of banking system balance sheet imbalance on monetary variables and solutions to adjust this imbalance. Journal of Monetary & Banking Research, 10(34), 621-656. (in persian).
  14. Ben S. Bernanke, B., S., (2009). Speech at the Stamp Lecture, London School of Economics.
  15. Burgess, S., Burrows, O., Godin, A., Kinsella, S., & Millard, S. (2016). A dynamic model of financial balances for the United Kingdom. Staff Working Paper, Bank of England No. 614.
  16. Caverzasi, E., & Godin, A. (2013). Stock-flow Consistent Modeling through the Ages, Working Paper No. 745, Levy Economics Institute
  17. Fratto, C., Vannier, B. H., Mircheva, M., de Padua, D., & Ward, M. H. P. (2021). Unconventional monetary policies in emerging markets and frontier countries. International Monetary Fund.
  18. Godley, W., & Lavoie, M. (2007). Monetary economics: An integrated approach to credit, money, income, production and wealth, London: Palgrave Macmillan.
  19. Haas, C. & Young-Taft, T,. (2017). Quantitative Easing and Asset Bubbles in a Stock-flow Consistent Framework, Working Paper No. 897, Levy Economics Institute.
  20. Hossini Dolatabadi, S. M. (2016). The Nature of Bank and its Implications for Islamic Banking Studies. Islamic Economics Studies Bi-quarterly Journal, 8 (16), 173-198.(in persian).
  21. Nassiri Aghdam, A., Asgari Dehabadi, M. M., (2017) .Quantitative Easing and its relevance for the Iran's Banking Crisis. The 28th Islamic Banking Conference. (In Persian)
  22. Sharifzadeh, M. J. (2015).The mystery of bank interest rates: Investigating the crisis of lack of liquidity in some financial institutions. Parliament Research Center of Iran.(in persian).
  23. Talebi, M. (2016). Identifying and Assessing Effective Factors on Iranian Banking System's Challenges. The Quarterly Journal of Improvement Management. 10 (33), 131-166. (in persian).