Investigating the Impact of Country Risk and Ecological Footprint on Tourism Demand in Iran

Document Type : Research Paper

Authors

1 . Department of Economics, Faculty of Humanities and Social Sciences, University of Kurdistan, Sanandaj, Iran

2 M.Sc. Student in Economics, Department of Economics, Faculty of Humanities and Social Sciences, University of Kurdistan, Sanandaj, Iran

3 Department of Economic Development and Planning, Faculty of Management and Economics, University of Tarbiat Modares, Tehran, Iran

Abstract

Nowadays, as the most diverse, the tourism industry is the most vital source of income and job opportunities for many countries in the world. Iran has the potential to attract tourists due to its rich historical, geographical, cultural, and natural attractions. Iran has the potential to attract tourists due to its rich historical, geographical, cultural, and natural attractions. Knowing the factors affecting the tourism industry is critical; however, identifying tourism obstacles can be more vital. In today's world, various risks affect the economy of countries. On the other hand, climate change has become the most crucial concern of humankind in this century. This paper uses the quantile regression method to investigate the impact of country risk, including economic risk, political risk, financial risk, and ecological footprint, on tourism demand in Iran from 1989 to 2020. The results of this research illustrate that country risk and its components have a negative and significant impact on tourism demand in Iran; this can demonstrate the importance of risk and uncertainty in Iran's economy. Moreover, the ecological footprint as a proxy of climate change negatively and significantly affects tourism demand in Iran. According to the research results, it is suggested that policymakers adjust the policies to reduce the country's risk and increase the confidence of foreign tourists to travel to Iran. On the other hand, paying attention to the climate change crisis should become more critical for the government and society; otherwise, this crisis can negatively affect tourist attractions in Iran.
 

Keywords

Main Subjects

References

  1. احمدزاده، خالد؛ منوچهری، صلاح‌الدین؛ امانی و رامینو صمدی‌پور، شهلا (1401). تغییرات اقلیمی، تجارت و نابرابری درآمدی: رهیافت رگرسیون چندکی در داده‌های تابلویی. اقتصاد و الگوسازی، 13(1)، 57-92.
  2. انصاری، محمدتقی؛ بامنی مقدم، محمد؛ خوشگویان فرد، علیرضا و سام آرام، عزت‌اله (1385). کاربرد رگرسیون چندک در تحلیل سلامت روانی. فصلنامه علمی پژوهشی رفاه اجتماعی، 5(20)، 49 –
  3. انواری، ابراهیم و مرادی، پرستو (1401). تجزیه‌وتحلیل اثرات نامتقارن متغیرهای کلان اقتصادی بر تقاضای گردشگری در ایران: رهیافت NARDL. فصلنامه علمی - پژوهشی برنامه‌ریزی منطقه‌ای، مقاله در دست چاپ.
  4. آهنگری، عبدالمجید و قباشی، نسیم (1398). پیش‌بینی جریان گردشگری ایران براساس مدل خاکستری بهبود یافته (1)GM، فصلنامه مطالعات اقتصادی کاربردی ایران، 8(31)، 173- 179.
  5. بامنی‌مقدم، محمد و خوشگویان فرد، علیرضا (1383). کاربرد رگرسیون چندک در شناسایی شکل توزیع رفاه اجتماعی. فصلنامه علمی پژوهشی رفاه اجتماعی، 4(15)، 57 –
  6. جعفری سرشت، داود و رزاقی، سمیه (1400). بررسی اثرات پاندمی کووید-19 بر کسب و کارهای صنعت گردشگری در مقاصد تفریحی و تجاری گردشگری: مطالعۀ مقایسه‌ای و موردی منطقۀ تفریحی گنج‌نامه و شهر لالجین. فصلنامه مطالعات اقتصادی کاربردی ایران، 10(38)، 151- 174.
  7. سوری، علی (1392). اقتصادسنجی. فرهنگ‌شناسی. شابک: 9786009072897
  8. شاه‌آبادی، ابوالفضل؛ مهری تلیابی، فریبا و امیدی، وحید (1400). تأثیر شاخص نهادی ریسک سیاسی بر جذب گردشگران خارجی در کشورهای حوزه منا. مطالعات مدیریت گردشگری، 15(51)، 229-251.
  9. شایگان، مصطفی؛ رنجبر، محسن؛ برنا، رضا و اربابی سبزواری، آزاده (1401). تاب‌آوری مقاصد گردشگری در مقابل آسیب‌های ناشی از تغییرات اقلیمی (مورد مطالعه: استان همدان). جغرافیای طبیعی، 15(56)، 1-15.
  10. صادقی عمروآبادی، بهروز؛ نجات‌ پور، مجید و کیانی، لیلا (1400). تأثیر کیفیت نهادی و ریسک سیاسی بر توسعه گردشگری در کشورهای منا با استفاده از الگوی جاذبه توسعه یافته. پژوهش‌های جغرافیای سیاسی، 6(3)، 102-117.
  11. صامتی، مجید؛ حسینی، میر هادی و احسانی فرید، مینا (1394). بررسی تأثیر ثبات سیاسی و حاکمیت قانون بر تعداد ورود گردشگران؛ مطالعه موردی: کشورهای منتخب اسلامی طی دوره 2012-1996. پژوهش‌های راهبردی مسائل اجتماعی ایران، 4(3)، 1-14.
  12. عابدی، سمانه و صداقت، ملیحه (1400). ارزیابی اثرات تغییرات اقلیم بر تقاضای گردشگری در شهرهای ایران. فصلنامه علمی - پژوهشی اقتصاد و مدیریت شهری، ۱۰ (۳۷)، ۱۸-۱
  13. فرجی سبک‌بار، حسنعلی؛ سلمانی، محمد و عیاشی، اطهره (1392) ارزیابی سطح ریسک در فرایند توسعه سیستم‌های گردشگری (مطالعه موردی: شهرستان خرم‌آباد). جغرافیا و مخاطرات محیطی. 2(6)، 123 –
  14. فطرس، محمدحسن؛ ایمانی خوشخو، محمدحسین؛ سرلک، احمد و حسینی صالحی، سید محمد (1400). مطالعۀ تطبیقی تأثیر عوامل مؤثر در گردشگری بین‌المللی در کشورهای توسعه‌یافته و درحال توسعۀ منتخب با تأکید بر شاخص نهادی ICRG (شاخص راهنمای بین‌المللی ریسک کشوری). گردشگری و توسعه، 10(3)، 1-15.
  15. محمدی، تیمور؛ کریمی، مجتبی؛ نجارزاده، نگین و شاه کرم اوغلی، معصومه (1389). عوامل مؤثر بر تقاضای گردشگری در ایران. فصلنامه اقتصاد مالی، 4(10)، 114 –
  16. مولائی، مرتضی و بشارت، احسان (1394). بررسی ارتباط بین تولید ناخالص داخلی و ردپای اکولوژیکی به‌عنوان شاخص تخریب محیط‌زیست. مجله تحقیقات اقتصادی، 50(4)، 1017-1033.

 Abedi, S., & Sedaghat, M. (2022). The Assessment of Climate Change Effects on Tourism Demands in the Cities of Iran [Research]. Journal of Urban Economics and Management, 10(37), 1-18.

https://doi.org/10.52547/iueam.10.37.1 (In Persian).

  1. Ahanghari, A., & Ghobashi, N. (2019). Forecasting of Iran tourism flow using the Improved Gray Model, GM (1, 1). Journal of Applied Economics Studies in Iran, 8(31), 159-173.

 doi: 10.22084/aes.2019.18740.2847 (In Persian).

  1. Ahmadzadeh, K., Manochehri, S., Amani, R., & Samadipour, S. (2022). Climate Change, Trade and Income Inequality: A Quantile Panel Regression Approach. Journal of Economics and Modeling, 13(1), 57-92. doi: 10.29252/jem.2022.227221.1755 (In Persian).
  2. Al-Mulali, U., Saboori, B., & Ozturk, I. (2015). Investigating the environmental Kuznets curve hypothesis in Vietnam. Energy Policy, 76, 123-131. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2014.11.019
  3. Ansari, M. T., Bamani Moghadam, M., Khoshgooyan Fard, A., & Samaram, E. (2006). Application of Quantile Regression in Mental Health Analysis [orginal]. Social Welfare, 5(20), 49-60. http://refahj.uswr.ac.ir/article-1-2001-en.html (In Persian).
  4. Anvari, E., & Moradi, P. (2021). Analyzing the Asymmetric Effects of Macroeconomic Variables on Tourism Demand in Iran: NARDL Approach. Regional Planning, Article in Press.
  5. Arabadzhyan, A., Figini, P., García, C., González, M. M., Lam-González, Y. E., & León, C. J. (2021). Climate change, coastal tourism, and impact chains – a literature review. Current Issues in Tourism, 24(16), 2233-2268. https://doi.org/10.1080/13683500.2020.1825351
  6. Aygün Oğur, A., & Baycan, T. (2022). Assessing climate change impacts on tourism demand in Turkey. Environment, Development and Sustainability, 1-31.
  7. Balli, F., Uddin, G. S., & Shahzad, S. J. H. (2019). Geopolitical risk and tourism demand in emerging economies. Tourism Economics, 25(6), 997-1005. https://doi.org/10.1177/1354816619831824
  8. Bameni Moghadam, M., & Khoshgooyan Fard, A. (2005). The Application of the Quantile Regression in Finding the Distribution of Expected Welfare [orginal]. Social Welfare, 4(15), 43-56. http://refahj.uswr.ac.ir/article-1-1904-en.html (In Persian).
  9. Brida, J. G., & Risso, W. (2009). Tourism as a factor of long-run economic growth: An empirical analysis for Chile. European Journal of Tourism Research, 2(2), 178–185. https://doi.org/10.54055/ejtr.v2i2.36
  10. Cosset, J.-C., & Roy, J. (1991). The determinants of country risk ratings. Journal of International Business Studies, 22(1), 135-142.
  11. Dashtban Farooji, M., Khoshnudi, A., & Dashtban Faroji, S. (2018). The Relationship between the Quality of Tourism Services and Economic Growth: An Endogenous Growth Model. Journal of Economics and Modeling, 8(32), 125-150. (In Persian).
  12. Davino, C., Furno, M., & Vistocco, D. (2013) Quantile regression. Theory and applications. Wiley, series in probability and statistics. Wiley, UK
  13. Eugene, A.R., Andreas, D., Thomas, D., & Carlo, J. (2010). Human Footprints on the Global Environment: Threats to Sustainability, MIT Press, United States of America.
  14. Fotros, M. H., Khoshkho Imani, M., Sarlak, A., & Hosseini Salehi, S. M. (2021). A Comparativ Study the Impact of Effective Factors on International tourism in selected developed and developing countries (Dynamic Panel Data Approach) with emphasis on ICRG characteristic index (International country risk guide). Journal of Tourism and Development, 10(3), 1-15.

https://doi.org/10.22034/jtd.2020.216854.1951 (In Persian).

  1. Galitz, L. (2013). The financial times handbook of financial engineering: Using derivatives to manage risk. Pearson UK.
  2. Habibi, F., & Amani, R. (2022). The Impact of Geopolitical Risk, World Economic Policy Uncertainty on Tourism Demand: Evidence from Malaysia. Iranian Economic Review, 26(2), 477-488. https://doi.org/10.22059/ier.2022.88176
  3. Habibi, F., Rahmati, M., & Karimi, A. (2018). Contribution of tourism to economic growth in Iran's Provinces: GDM approach. Future Business Journal, 4(2), 261-271.

https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1016/j.fbj.2018.09.001

  1. Hailemariam, A., & Ivanovski, K. (2021). The impact of geopolitical risk on tourism. Current Issues in Tourism, 24(22), 3134-3140. https://doi.org/10.1080/13683500.2021.1876644
  2. Hildreth, C. J., Bell, C. C., Jenkins, E. J., Levi, D., & Carter, C. (1988). The need for victimization screening in a poor outpatient medical population. Journal of the National Medical Association, 80(8), 853.
  3. Howell, L. D., & Chaddick, B. (1994). Models of political risk for foreign investment and trade: An assessment of three approaches. The Columbia Journal of World Business, 29(3), 70-91.

https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1016/0022-5428(94)90048-5

  1. https://data.footprintnetwork.org/?_ga=2.10688498.751756518.1654264070-463213341.1654264070#/countryTrends?type=BCtot,EFCtot&cn =5001
  2. https://wttc.org/Research/Economic-Impact/moduleId/704/itemId/132/ controller/DownloadRequest/action/QuickDownload
  3. https://www.footprintnetwork.org/resources/data/
  4. https://www.prsgroup.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/04/ICRG-Method.pdf
  5. Huang, C. (2012). The impact of local environmental quality on international tourism demand: The case of China.
  6. Hwang, Y. S., Kim, H. S. H., & Yu, C. (2018). The Empirical Test on the Impact of Climate Volatility on Tourism Demand: A Case of Japanese Tourists Visiting Korea. Sustainability, 10(10), 3569.

 https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/10/10/3569

  1. Ibragimov, K., Perles-Ribes, J. F., & Ramón-Rodríguez, A. B. (2022). The impact of climate change on tourism demand: evidence from Kazakhstan. Anatolia, 1-5.

https://doi.org/10.1080/13032917.2022.2029510

  1. Irani, F., Athari, S. A., & Hadood, A. A. A. (2021). The Impacts of Country Risk, Global Economic Policy Uncertainty, and Macroeconomic Factors on the Turkish Tourism Industry. International Journal of Hospitality & Tourism Administration, 1-24.

https://doi.org/10.1080/15256480.2021.1935393

  1. Jafari Seresht, D., & Razzaghi, S. (2021). A Survey on the Complex Aspects of COVID-19 in Pleasure and Commercial Touristic Destinations: A Comparative Case Study in Business Level. Journal of Applied Economics Studies in Iran, 10(38), 151-174.

 doi: 10.22084/aes.2021.24479.3311 (In Persian).

  1. Koenker, R. (2005). Quantile Regression. Cambridge University Press.
  2. K. (1966). A New Approach to Consumer Theory. Journal of Political Economy, 74, 132-157.
  3. Lee, C.-C., & Chen, M.-P. (2021). Do Country Risks Matter for Tourism Development? International Evidence. Journal of Travel Research, 60(7), 1445-1468. https://doi.org/10.1177/0047287520954539
  4. Lee, C.-C., & Chen, M.-P. (2021). Ecological footprint, tourism development, and country risk: International evidence. Journal of Cleaner Production, 279, 123671.

https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2020.123671

  1. Lee, C.-C., Olasehinde-Williams, G., & Akadiri, S. S. (2021). Geopolitical risk and tourism: Evidence from dynamic heterogeneous panel models. International Journal of Tourism Research, 23(1), 26-38. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1002/jtr.2389
  2. Lin, D., Hanscom, L., Murthy, A., Galli, A., Evans, M., Neill, E., Mancini, M., Martindill, J., Medouar, F.-Z., Huang, S., & Wackernagel, M. (2018). Ecological Footprint Accounting for Countries: Updates and Results of the National Footprint Accounts, 2012-2018. Resources, 7, 1-22. https://doi.org/10.3390/resources7030058
  3. Liu, T. M. (2016). The influence of climate change on tourism demand in Taiwan national parks. Tourism Management Perspectives, 20, 269- 275.
  4. Liu, Y., Sadiq, F., Ali, W., & Kumail, T. (2022). Does tourism development, energy consumption, trade openness and economic growth matters for ecological footprint: Testing the Environmental Kuznets Curve and pollution haven hypothesis for Pakistan. Energy, 245, 123208.

https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2022.123208

  1. Markowitz, H. (1952). The utility of wealth. Journal of political Economy, 60(2), 151-158.
  2. Mohammadi, T., Karimi, M., Najarzadeh, N., & Shahkaram oghli, M. (2010). Factors affecting demand for tourism in Iran. Financial Economics, 4(10), 114-142. (In Persian).
  3. Molaei, M., & Basharat, E. (2015). Investigating Relationship between Gross Domestic Product and Ecological Footprint as an Environmental Degradation Index. Journal of Economic Research (Tahghighat- E- Eghtesadi), 50(4),1017-1033.doi: 10.22059/jte.2015.56156 (In Persian).
  4. Monfreda, C., Wackernagel, M., & Deumling, D. (2004). Establishing national natural capital accounts based on detailed ecological footprint and biological capacity assessments. Land use policy, 21(3), 231-246.
  5. Muzindutsi, P., & Manaliyo, J. C. (2016). Effect of Political Risk Shocks on Tourism Revenue in South Africa: Time Series Analysis. International Journal of Business and Management Studies, 8 (2), 169-186. Retrieved from

https://dergipark.org.tr/en/pub/ijbms/issue/26059/274517

  1. Nathaniel, S. P., Barua, S., & Ahmed, Z. (2021). What drives ecological footprint in top ten tourist destinations? Evidence from advanced panel techniques. Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 28(28), 38322-38331. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-021-13389-5
  2. Poirier, R. A. (1997). Political risk analysis and tourism. Annals of Tourism Research, 24(3), 675-686.

https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1016/S0160-7383(97)00019-4

  1. Qureshi, M. I., Elashkar, E. E., Shoukry, A. M., Aamir, A., Mahmood, N. H. N., Rasli, A. M., & Zaman, K. (2019). Measuring the ecological footprint of inbound and outbound tourists: evidence from a panel of 35 countries. Clean Technologies and Environmental Policy, 21(10), 1949-1967. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10098-019-01720-1
  2. Ruan, W.-Q., Li, Y.-Q., & Liu, C.-H. S. (2017). Measuring Tourism Risk Impacts on Destination Image. Sustainability, 9(9), 1501. https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/9/9/1501
  3. Sadeghi Amroabadi, B., Nejatpoor, M., & kiani, L. (2021). The Impact of Institutional Quality and Political Risk on Tourism Development in Mena Countries using the Developed Gravity pattern. Research Political Geography Quarterly, 6(3), 102-117. doi: 10.22067/pg.2021.27250.0 (In Persian).
  4. Sameti, M., Hoseini, M. H., & Ehsanifarid, M. (2016). The Impact of Political Instability and Rule of Law on Tourist Arrival: A Case Study of Selected Islamic Countries (1996-2012). Strategic Research on Social Problems in Iran, 4(3), 1-14. (In Persian).
  5. Schubert, S., Brida, J., & Risso, W. A. (2011). The impacts of international tourism demand on economic growth of small economies dependent on tourism. Tourism Management, 32(2), 377-385. https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:touman:v:32:y:2011:i:2:p:377-385.
  6. Sequeira, T. N., & Nunes, P. M. (2008). Does Country Risk Influence International Tourism? A Dynamic Panel Data Analysis. Economic Record, 84(265), 223-236.

https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1475-4932.2008.00464.x

  1. Shahabadi, A., Mehri Telyabi, F., & Omidi, V. (2020). The Effect of Political Institutional Risk Index on the Attraction of Foreign Tourists in the MENA Countries. Tourism Management Studies, 15(51), 229-251. doi: 10.22054/tms.2020.6181.1141 (In Persian).
  2. Shayegan, M., Ranjbar, M., Borna, R., & Arbaby, A. (2022). Toleration of tourism destination on the side effects of climate changes (studied by Hamedan province). Physical Geography Quarterly, 15(56), 1-15. (In Persian).
  3. Sookram, S. (2009). The impact of climate change on the tourism sector in selected Caribbean countries. Caribbean Development Report, 2(30), 204-225.
  4. Štetić, S. (2016). Risks in tourism (on the example of events). Quaestus Multidisciplinary Research Journal. No.8, 68-78.
  5. Suri, A. (2012). Econometrics. Farhang Shenasi. ISBN: 9786009072897 (In Persian).
  6. Tang, C. F., & Tan, E. (2013). How stable is the tourism-led growth hypothesis in Malaysia? Evidence from disaggregated tourism markets. Tourism Management, 37, 52–57.

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tourman.2012.12.014

  1. Torres, C., Jordà, G., de Vílchez, P., Vaquer-Sunyer, R., Rita, J., Canals, V., Cladera, A., Escalona, J. M., & Miranda, M. Á. (2021). Climate change and its impacts in the Balearic Islands: a guide for policy design in Mediterranean regions. Regional Environmental Change, 21(4), 107. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-021-01810-1
  2. Ulucak, R., & Lin, D. (2017). Persistence of policy shocks to Ecological Footprint of the USA. Ecological Indicators, 80, 337-343. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2017.05.020
  3. Wang, L.-e., Zeng, Y., & Zhong, L. (2017). Impact of Climate Change on Tourism on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau: Research-Based on a Literature Review. Sustainability, 9(9), 1539.

 https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/9/9/1539

  1. World Tourism Organization, Tourism Highlights (2019). Edition | Tourism Market Trends UNWTO URL, http://mkt.unwto.org /publication/unwto-tourism-highlights (accessed December 30, 2019).
  2. World Travel and Tourism Council (2019). City Travel and Tourism Impact. World Travel and Tourism Council. https://www.wttc.org/-/media/files/reports/economic-impact-research/countries 2017/russianfederation2017.pdf https://iosh.com/media/8163/ wttc-iosh-presentation-tm.pdf.
  3. Zivot, E., & Donald, W. K. Andrews (1992). Further Evidence on the Great Crash, the Oil-Price Shock, and the Unit-Root Hypothesis. Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 10(3), 251–270.
Journal of Economic Research (Tahghighat- E- Eghtesadi)
Volume 58, Issue 3 - Serial Number 144
December 2023
Pages 357-393

Files

History

  • Receive Date: 05 April 2023
  • Revise Date: 16 August 2023
  • Accept Date: 24 September 2023

Share

How to cite

Statistics