The Impact of Imported Intermediate Goods on Exports: Evidence from Iran’s Industrial Firms

Document Type : Research Paper

Authors

1 Department of Economic, Faculty of Economic, Allameh Tabataba'i University, Tehran, Iran

2 Department of Economic, Faculty of Economic, Payame Noor University, Tehran, Iran

Abstract

Encouraging firms to engage in exports is a crucial concern for developing countries, as the growth and dynamism of exports are essential for sustainable economic development. Researchers and policymakers have consistently sought effective ways to enhance firms' exports and examine the determining factors. One common method to boost and diversify exports, particularly in developing countries, involves a continuous shift towards downstream industries along production chains, utilizing the imported of intermediate goods. Over the past few years, the relationship between the importation of intermediate goods and exports has received attention. In this article, the impact of importing intermediate goods, along with other influential factors, on Iran's industrial exports is examined. The proposed model in the article considers exports as a function of both price and non-price variables, and estimation has been conducted using fourth edition ISIC (International Standard Industrial Classification) four-digit data for Iranian industrial firms during the time period from 2012 to 2019. By employing econometric techniqes and dynamic panel data methods, and considering that the data are defined cross-sectionally and time series, the generalized method of moments (GMM) and the Arellano-Bond type have been utilized for estimation. Empirical findings indicate that the importation of intermediate goods has a positive and significant impact on Iran's industrial exports. Specifically, 1% increase in the importation of intermediate goods results in 0.20% increase in Iran's industrial exports. Meanwhile, the impact of other variables on Iran's industrial exports is significant and aligns with theoretical foundations.
  JEL Classification: F14, L60, O33, C2

Keywords

Main Subjects

References

  1. بانوئی، علی اصغر؛ عرب مازار یزدی، علی؛ شرکت، افسانه؛ کیانی راد، آذین و صادقی، نگین (1401). نارسایی‌های جداول داده ستانده متعارف در ایران و راهکار برون رفت در سنجش صادرات و واردات ارزش‌افزوده. اقتصاد و تجارت نوین، 17(2)، 3-36.
  2. پورمند بخشایش، طیبه؛ سلمانی، بهزاد و برقی اسکویی، محمدمهدی (1399). بررسی تأثیر سرریز فناوری و سرمایه انسانی بر رشد بهره‌وری کل عوامل بخش نفت و گاز ایران، رشد فناوری، 64 (16)، 81 –
  3. تقوی، مهدی؛ خلیلی عراقی، مریم و مهربا نفر، زهرا (1392). تأثیر واردات کالاهای سرمایه‌ای، واسط‌های و مصرفی بر رشد اقتصادی منطقه منا، اقتصادی، 3 و 4، 76 –
  4. سازمان توسعه و تجارت، پایگاه اینترنتی سازمان توسعه و تجارت https://tpo.ir
  5. شاهین پور، علی و خوش رفتار، افسانه (1398). بررسی تأثیر صادرات و واردات کالاهای سرمایه‌ای واسطه‌ای بر ارزش‌افزوده در صنایع ایران، اقتصاد کاربردی، 9(28)، 69-82.
  6. صمصامی، حسین و توتونچی ملکی سعید (1389). بررسی اثرات مستقیم و غیرمستقیم تغییرات نرخ ارز بر صادرات غیرنفتی. اقتصاد و الگوسازی، 1(1)، 23-29.
  7. عزیزنژاد، صمد و مهری پرگو، وجیهه (1384). الحاق ایران به سازمان تجارت جهانی و آثار بر واردات کالاهای سرمایه‌ای در اقتصاد ایران، مجلس و پژوهش، 12(49 و 50 )، 143 –
  8. فرجادی،‌ غلامعلی و لعلی، محمدرضا (1376). تأثیر واردات کالاهای سرمایه‌ای و واسطه‌ای بر رشد اقتصادی ایران (1373-1340)، پژوهشنامه بازرگانی، 4(1)، 1-28.
  9. کیانی راد، آذین (۱۴۰۱). سنجش ارزش‌افزوده داخلی در صادرات ناخالص و نقش آن در اندازه‌گیری رقابت‌پذیری: مطالعه موردی اقتصادهای منابع محور و غیرمنابع محور، پایان‌نامه کارشناسی ارشد، دانشکده اقتصاد دانشگاه علامه طباطبایی.
  10. گمرک جمهوری اسلامی ایران، آمارهای سالیانه 1395-1399، پایگاه اینترنتی گمرک جمهوری اسلامی ایران.
  11. موسوی آزاد کسمائی، افسانه (1400). بررسی و تحلیل صادرات و واردات و پیش‌بینی آن برای سال 1401، تهران، ایران، مرکز پژوهش‌های توسعه و آینده‌نگری سازمان برنامه و بودجه.
  12. منجذب، محمدرضا و نصرتی، رضا (۱۳۹۷). مدل‌های اقتصاد‌سنجی پیشرفته همراه با ایویوز و استاتا، چاپ اول، مؤسسه کتاب مهربان نشر.
  13. ندیری، محمد و محمدی، تیمور (1390). بررسی تأثیر ساختارهای نهادی بر رشد اقتصادی با روش GMM داده‌های تابلویی پویا، مدل‌سازی اقتصادی، 3(15)، 1-24.
  14. هادیان، ابراهیم، دهقان شبان، زهرا و شجاعیان، محبوبه (1397). بررسی نقش واردات کالاهای واسطه‌ای و سرمایه‌ای بر صادرات غیرنفتی در کشورهای عضو اوپک: رویکرد داده‌های تابلویی فضایی، سیاست‌های مالی و اقتصادی، 6 (24)، 171-189.
  15. Acharya, R., & Keller, W. (2009). Technology transfer through imports. Canadian Journal of Economics, 42(4), 1411–1448.

doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-5982.2009. 01550. x

  1. Andersson, M., & Ejermo, O. (2006). Technology and trade: An analysis of technology specialization and export flows. CESIS-Electronic Working Paper Series, (65).
  2. Azizenjad, S., & Mehri Pargo, V. (2005). Iran's accession to the World Trade Organization and the effects on the import of capital goods in Iran's economy, Majles and Research, 12(49 and 50), 143-162. (In Persian).
  3. Banouei, A., & etc. (2022). Fallacies of Conventional Import Type Input-Output Table in Iran and Way out in Measuring Value-added in Exports and Imports. Quartery journal of new economy and trade, 17(2), 3-36. 30465/JNET.2022.41913.1914 (in persian)
  4. Boyd, D. (1996). The impact of exchange rate adjustment on output: Jamaica 1960–90. Applied Economics Letters, 3(6), 409-411.‏org/10.1080/135048596356339
  5. Busse, M., & Groizard, J. L. (2008). Foreign direct investment, regulations and growth. World Economy, 31(7), 861-886.‏
  6. Bas, M., & Strauss-Kahn, V. (2014). Does importing more inputs raise exports? Firm-level evidence from France. Review of World Economics, 150, 241-275.‏
  7. Benguria, F. (2014). Imported intermediate inputs and export diversification in low-income countries. University of Virginia.‏
  8. Chandra, V., & Kolavalli, S. (2006). Technology, adaptation, and exports—How some developing countries got it right? In V. Chandra (Ed.), Technology, adaptation, and exports—How some developing countries got it right, The World Bank. (Chapter 1), 1–47.
  9. Caselli, F., & Wilson, D. (2004). Importing technology. Journal of Monetary Economics, 51(1),1–32.

doi.org/10.1016/j.jmoneco.2003.07.004

  1. Clougherty, J. A., & Zhang, A. (2009). Domestic rivalry and export performance: Theory and evidence from international airline markets. Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, 42(2), 440-468.

‏ doi.org/10.1111/j.1540-5982.2009.01515. x

  1. Coe, D.T., & Helpman, E. (1995). International R&D spillovers. NBER Working Paper, No. W4444, (http://ssrn.com/abstract=227321). org/10.1016/0014-2921(94)00100-E
  2. Coe, D. T., Helpman, E., & Hoffmaister, A. W. (1997). North-South R&D spillovers. The Economic Journal, 107(440), 134–149.
  3. Development and Trade Organization, website of Development and Trade Organization. https://tpo.ir. (In Persian).
  4. Eaton, J., & Kortum, S. (2001). Trade in capital goods. European Economic Review, 45 (7), 1195– https://doi.org/10.1016/S0014-2921(00)00103-3
  5. Farjadi, G., A., & Laele, M. R. (1376). The effect of import of capital and intermediate goods on the economic growth of Iran (1340-73), Iranian Journal of Trade Studies, 4(1), 28-1. (In Persian).
  6. Feenstra, R. C., & Taylor, A.M. (2014). International economics, 3th edition, Worth publishers, NewYork.
  7. Guner, B., Lee, J., & Lucius, H. (2010), The Impact of Industry Characteristics on Export Performance: A Three Country Study, International Journal of Business and Economic Perspectives, 5(2), 126-141.
  8. Grossman, G., & Rossi-Hansberg, E. (2008). Trading Tasks: A Simple Theory of Offshoring. American Economic Review, 98(5), 1978-1997. doi: 10.1257/aer.98.5.1978
  9. Gylfason, T., & Schmid, M. (1983). Does devaluation cause stagflation? Canadian Journal of Economics, 641-654.‏
  10. Herrerias, M. J., & Orts, V. (2011). Imports and growth in China. Economic Modelling, 28(6), 2811–2819.

doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2011.08.025

  1. Hadian, E., Dehghanm, Z., & Shojaeeyan, M. (2018). The Role of Intermediate and Capital Goods Imports in Non-Oil Exports in OPEC Countries: Spatial Dynamic Panel Data Approach. Quarterly Journal of Fiscal and Economic Policies, 6(24), 171-189. (in persian)
  2. Hummels, D., Ishii, J., & Yi, K. (1998). The Nature and Growth of Vertical Specialization in World Trade. SSRN Electronic Journal. doi.org/10.1016/S0022-1996(00)00093-3
  3. Iyer, K. (2010). The Determinants of Firm-level Export Intensity in New Zealand Agriculture and Forestry, Economic Analysis & Policy, 40 (1), 75-84. org/10.1016/S0313-5926(10)50005-5
  4. Jones, R., & Kierzkowski, H. (1986). Neighborhood Production Structures, with an Application to the Theory of International Trade. Oxford Economic Papers, 38(1), 59-76.

 doi: 10.1093/oxfordjournals.oep.a041732

  1. Johnson, R., & Noguera, G. (2012). Accounting for intermediates: Production sharing and trade in value added. Journal of International Economics, 86(2), 224-236. doi: 10.1016/j.jinteco.2011.10.003
  2. Keller, W. (2004). International technology diffusion. Journal of Economic Literature, 42(3), 752–782.

Doi: 10.1257/0022051042177685

  1. Kiani Rad, A. (2022). Measuring domestic added value in gross exports and its role in measuring competitiveness: a case study of resource-based and non-resource-based economies, Master's thesis, Faculty of Economics, Allameh Tabatabai University. (In Persian).
  2. Kumar, M. (2018). An Analytical Framework for Studying the Determinants of Vertical Specialization in Asian Countries. Academy of Asian Business Review,4(1), 49-79. doi: 10.26816/aabr.4.1.201806.49
  3. Krugman, P. R. & Obstfeld, M. (2009). “International economics: Theory and Policy”, 8th edition, Pearson Addison Wesley, Boston.
  4. Krugman, P., & Taylor, L. (1978). Contractionary effects of devaluation. Journal of international economics, 8(3), 445-456.‏ org/10.1016/0022-1996(78)90007-7
  5. Kowalski, P., Lopez-Gonzalez, J., Ragoussis, A. and Ugarte, C. (2015). Participation of developing countries in global value chains: Implications for trade and trade-related policies, OECD Trade Policy Papers 179, OECD Publishing, Paris. doi.org/10.1787/18166873
  6. Krugman, P. R. & Obstfeld, M. (2009). International economics: Theory and Policy, 8th edition, Pearso Addison Wesley, Boston.
  7. Los, B. (2017). Handbook of Input-Output Analysis. In T. T. Raa (Ed.), Input–Output analysis of international trade (pp. 277-328). Edward Elgar Publishing
  8. Lopez Gonzalez, J. (2016). Using foreign factors to enhance domestic export performance: A focus on Southeast Asia, OECD Trade Policy Papers 191, OECD Publishing, Paris.

doi.org/10.1787/5jlpq82v1jxw-en

  1. Monjazeb, M, & Nosrati, R. (2018). Advanced Econometric Models with Eviews and Stata, first edition, Mehraban Publishing House. (In Persian).
  2. Mousavi Azad Kasmai, A. (2021), review and analysis of export and import and its forecast for the year 2022, Tehran, Iran, Development and Foresight Research Center of Program and Budget Organization. January 2021. (In Persian).
  3. Ndubuisi, G., Mensah, E., & Owusu, S. (2020). Export Variety and Imported Intermediate Inputs: Industry-Level Evidence from Africa.‏
  4. Nadiri, M. and Mohammadi, T. (2011). Estimating an Institutional Structure in Economic Growth Using GMM Dynamic Panel Data Method. Quarterly journal of Economic Modelind, 5(15),1-24. (in persian)
  5. Okafor, L., Bhattacharya, M., & Bloch, H. (2016). Imported intermediates, absorptive capacity, and productivity: Evidence from Ghanaian manufacturing firms. The World Economy, 40(2),369-392. org/10.1111/twec.12467
  6. Pesaran, M. H. (2012). On the interpretation of panel unit root tests. Economics Letters, 116(3), 545-546.

doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2012.04.049

  1. Pourmandbakhshayesh, T, Salmani, B. & bargioskooi, M. (2020). Effects of Technology Spillover and Internal Research & Development (R&D) on Growth of Total Factor Productivity (TFP) in Iran's Oil and Gas Sector, Journal of science and technology park and incubators, 64(16), 72-81. (in Persian)
  2. Reis, J., & Forte, R. (2016). The Impact of Industry Characteristic on Firms' Export Intensity, International Area Studies Review, Vol. 19(3), 266– 281. org/10.1177/223386591664
  3. Samsami, H., & Totonchi Maleki, S. (2010). The Effect of the Analysis of Crude Oil Price and Petroleum Products Price Tax on the Market Price and Demand Volume of OECD Country. Journalof Economics and Modelling, 1(1), 1-21. (in persian)
  4. Sanyal, K., & Jones, R. W. (1982). The Theory of Trade in Middle Products. The American Economic Review, 72(1), 16-3.
  5. Shahinpour, A., & Khoshraftar, A. (2018). Investigating the effect of export and import of intermediate capital goods on added value in Iranian industries, Applied Economics, 9(28), 69-82. (In Persian)
  6. Takii, S. (2019). Imported Intermediate Inputs and Plants’ Export Dynamics Evidence from Indonesian Plant-product-level Data.‏
  7. Taghavi, M, Khalili Iraqi, M., & Mehrabanfar, Z. (2013). The effect of importing capital, intermediate and consumer goods on the economic growth of Mena region. Economic Journal (bimonthly review of economic issues and policies), 13 (3 and 4): 65-76. (In Persian).
  8. The Islamic Republic of Iran Customs adminstration, annual statistics of 2016-2020, customs website of the Islamic Republic of Iran. (In Persian).
  9. Zanello, G., Fu, X., Mohnen, P., & Ventresca, M. (2016). The creation and diffusion of innovation in developing countries: A systematic literature review. Journal of Economic Surveys, 30(5), 884–912. org/10.1111/joes.12126
  10. Zhang, X., & Zou, H. F. (1995). Foreign technology imports and economic growth in developing countries (Vol. 1412). World Bank Publications. https://unctadstat.unctad.org/datacentre/
Journal of Economic Research (Tahghighat- E- Eghtesadi)
Volume 58, Issue 4 - Serial Number 145
December 2023
Pages 637-662

Files

History

  • Receive Date: 24 September 2023
  • Revise Date: 17 December 2023
  • Accept Date: 16 January 2024

Share

How to cite

Statistics