Study of Economical Compatibility in the Eurozone and the Role of it in Euro Crisis

Document Type : Research Paper


1 Professor in economics department at Bahonar university of Kerman

2 Ph.D Student in Shahid Bahonar University of Kerman


One of the necessary preconditions to the establishment and stability of optimal currency area is the homogeneity of the economic structure in Member States. But Place with Eurozone currency crisis, the question arises whether the economic structure of the Eurozone countries were homogeneous? Accordingly, this study by using an Econometrics model and estimating it by panel data method, has been discussed this issue. The results show that the level of economic development has a critical role in multiplicity of economic factors affecting the intensifying of business fluctuations and the currency crisis. Accordingly, Germany, in terms of enjoyment a current account surplus and high GDP per capita, is considered as the pattern country in the area. Then we investigated the effects of reduction of structural differences between Germany and other countries on the business fluctuation. The results show that in the countries including; Belgium, Finland, France, Italy and Spain, reducing the difference with Germany (increase) in credit of the banking sector, savings, consumption and labor force participation rates, will intensify trade volatility in these countries. Also, in countries including Cyprus, Greece, Portugal, Estonia, Slovakia, Malta, Latvia, Slovenia, reducing the difference with Germany (increase) in banking sector credit, government spending and fixed capital formation, will led to increase the volatility of balance trade in these countries.


  1. آریا، کیومرث و محبی‌خواه، بیتا (1390). بررسی تغییر ذخایر ارزی ایران از دلار آمریکا به دیگر ارزهای مورد پذیرش، ماهنامة بررسی مسائل و سیاست‏های اقتصادی، 11، 111 ـ 134.
  2. اسلامی بیدگلی، غلامرضا، محمدرضا مهرگان و غلامی، پدیده (1390). مدیریت بهینة دارایی‏ها در بانک‏ها با استفاده از روش تحلیل سلسله‌مراتبی فازی و برنامه‏ریزی آرمانی، فصلنامة مهندسی مالی و مدیریت اوراق بهادار، 9، 23 ـ 44.
  3. اشرف‌زاده، سیدحمیدرضا و مهرگان، نادر (1387). اقتصادسنجی پانل دیتا، مؤسسة تحقیقات تعاون دانشگاه تهران.
  4. امیدی، علی و اصلانی اسلمرز، عابد (1388). درس‏های همگرایی اتحادیة‏ اروپا برای اکو، فصلنامة برنامه‌ریزی و بودجه، 109، 3 ـ 38.
  5. بیابانی، جهانگیر، شایگانی، بیتا، ندری، کامران و عبدالهی آرانی، مصعب (1391). امکان‌‌سنجی نظریة منطقة بهینة پولی (OCA) برای کشورهای سازمان همکاری اقتصادی (اکو): الگوریتم خوشه‏بندی فازی نسبت به مرکز، فصلنامة پژوهش‌ها و سیاست‏های اقتصادی، 20(62)، 39 ـ 78.
  6. شجری، پرستو و محبی‌خواه، بیتا (1389). پیش‌بینی بحران‏های بانکی و تراز پرداخت‏ها با استفاده از روش علامت‌دهی KLR (مطالعة موردی: ایران)، فصلنامة پول و اقتصاد، 4، 115 ـ 152.
  7. کومسا، آسفائو (1378). جهانی‌شدن و منطقه‌گرایی و تأثیر آن بر کشورهای در حال توسعه، ترجمة‏ اسماعیل مردانی گیوی، اطلاعات سیاسی- اقتصادی، 147 و 148، 182 ـ 189.
  8. اپل یارد، دنیس و فیلد، آلفرد (1378). مالیة بین‌الملل، ترجمة محمدعلی مانی، تهران: نشر نی.
    1. Alturki, Fahad Mohammed A. (2007). Essays on Optimum Currency Areas, A Dissertation for Degree of Doctor of Philosophy, Department of Economics and the Graduate School of the University of Oregon.
    2. Boreiko, D. (2003). EMU and Accession Countries: Fuzzy Cluster Analysis of Membership, International Journal of Finance Economic, 8, 4, 309-325.
    3. Clark, T.E., West, K.D. (2006). Using Out-of-Sample Mean Squared Prediction Errors to Test the Martingale Difference Hypothesis. Journal of Econometrics 135(1-2), PP. 155-186.
    4. Cote,Agathe (1994). Exchange Rate Volatility and Trade ; a Survey, Working Paper 94-5,Bank of Canada.
    5. Demertzis, M., Hughes, A. & Rummel, O. (2000). Is the European Union a Natural Currency Area, or is it Held Together by Policy Makers?, Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv, 136(4), 657-79.
    6. Engel, C. & Rogers, J.H. (2006). The U.S. current account deficit and the expected share of world output, Journal of Monetary Economics, 53, 1063-1093.
    7. Engle, R. F. (1982). Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of UK Inflation. Econometrica, 50, PP. 987–1008.
    8. Kollman, R., Ratto, M. & Vogel, L. (2014). What Drives the German Current Account? And how does it affect other EU member States? European Union, Economic Papers, 516, 1-72.
    9. Krugman, Paul (1979). A Model of Balance-of-Payments Crises, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 11(3), 311-325.
    10. Laursen, F. (2003). Theoretical Perspectives on Comparative Regional Integration, In Finn Laursen (ed.), Comparative Regional Integration: Theoretical Perspectives (Aldershot: Ashgate), 3-28.
    11. Levin, A., Lin, CF & Chu, J. (2002). Unit Root Tests in Panel Data: Asymptotic and Finite Sample Properties, Journal of Econometrics, 108, 1-24.
    12. Loayzo, N. (1999). Determinates of Current Account Deficits in developing countries, Working Papers, 51, 28.
    13. McKinnon, R. (1963). Optimum currency area, American Economic Review, 53, 717-725.
    14. Melvin, M. (1985). The Choice of an Exchange Rate Systems and Macroeconomic Stability, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 17, 467-478.
    15. Mundel, Robert (1961). A Theory of Optimum Currency Areas, American Economic Review, 51, 657-665.
    16. Ozer, I. & Ozkan, I. (2007). Optimum Filtering for Optimum Currency Areas Criteria, Economics Bulletin, 6, 44, 1-18.
    17. Sfia, D.M. (2011). The Choice of Exchange Rate Regimes in the MENA Countries: A Probit Analysis, International Economics and Economic Policy, 8, 275-305.
    18. Tsangarides, C. & Qureshi, M.S. (2006). What is Fuzzy about Clustering in West Africa?, IMF Working Paper, 06/90, Washington: International Monetary Fund.
    19. Vergil,Hasan (2002). Echange Rate Volatility and Its Effect on Trade Flows, Journal of Economic and Social Research, Vol 4, No.1.