نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی
نویسندگان
1 گروه اقتصاد نظری، دانشکده اقتصاد و مدیریت، دانشگاه شهید باهنر کرمان، کرمان، ایران.
2 گروه اقتصاد نظری ، دانشکده اقتصاد و مدیریت ، دانشگاه شهید باهنر کرمان، کرمان، ایران.
چکیده
کلیدواژه‌ها
موضوعات
عنوان مقاله [English]
نویسندگان [English]
This study aims to determine the optimal growth rate of money supply and the preference parameters of monetary authorities through an optimization framework under backward-looking expectations. By formulating the central bank’s loss function with structural constraints including aggregate supply, aggregate demand, and money demand equations, and estimating these constraints using Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) for the period 1978-2022, the study derives the monetary authorities’ preferences that minimize social welfare loss by stabilizing inflation, output, and smoothing money supply growth. The estimated preferences indicate that the central bank prioritizes inflation deviations, followed by deviations in money growth. Given that inflation changes predominantly stem from money supply variations in Iran, close attention to money growth deviations is critical. The optimal monetary policy rule suggests that stabilizing money growth should take precedence over output stabilization. Empirical evidence reveals a significant and persistent deviation between actual and optimal money growth, contributing to high inflation in Iran. Policy implications recommend aligning monetary policy with the optimal money growth framework to achieve effective inflation control and economic stability.
کلیدواژه‌ها [English]
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