فصلنامه تحقیقات اقتصادی

فصلنامه تحقیقات اقتصادی

اثرات پویای قانون مانع‌زدایی از توسعه صنعت برق بر مصرف برق خانوارهای ایرانی: با تأکید بر نقش تورم

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان
1 گروه اقتصاد نظری، دانشکده اقتصاد، دانشگاه علامه طباطبائی، تهران، ایران.
2 گروه اقتصاد نظری، دانشکده اقتصاد، دانشگاه علامه طباطبائی، تهران، ایران
3 گروه اقتصاد، دانشکده علوم انسانی، دانشگاه آیت الله بروجردی، بروجرد، ایران.
چکیده
افزایش مصرف برق خانگی و ناترازی تولید و مصرف، یکی از مهم‌ترین چالش‌های انرژی در ایران است. در پاسخ به این مسأله، دولت قانون مانع‌زدایی از توسعه صنعت برق را برای کنترل مصرف و ترغیب خانوارهای پرمصرف به صرفه‌جویی اجرا کرده، با این‌حال اثر این قانون بر مصرف برق مورد بررسی قرار نگرفته است. بنابراین هدف این پژوهش بررسی اثرات پویای این قانون بر مصرف برق خانگی و نقش تورم در تعدیل این اثر است. نوآوری مطالعه در تحلیل اثرات پویای قانون مانع‌زدایی از توسعه صنعت برق بر مصرف خانوارها و تفکیک تأثیر تورم بر نتایج آن نهفته است. نتایج این مطالعه نشان داد، قانون مانع‌زدایی اثر منفی و معناداری بر مصرف برق دارد. ضریب قانون در سال اول و دوم پس از اجرای آن منفی و معنادار است، اما این ضریب در سال دوم کوچک‌تر از سال اول است. همچنین، ضریب عبارت تعاملی میان تورم و قانون مانع‌زدایی از توسعه صنعت برق مثبت و معنادار است. به‌عبارتی این قانون اثر بازدارنده بر مصرف برق دارد، اما با گذشت زمان و تحت شرایط تورمی، میزان این اثر کاهش می‌یابد. بنابراین پیشنهاد می‌شود اصلاحات قیمتی به صورت مرحله‌ای اعمال و همزمان با سیاستهای کنترل تورم اجرا شود تا صرفه‌جویی در مصرف برق پایدار باقی بماند.
کلیدواژه‌ها
موضوعات

عنوان مقاله English

The Dynamic Effects of the Law on Removing Obstacles for Power Industry Development on Iranian Household Electricity Consumption: With an Emphasis on

نویسندگان English

Leyla Jabari 1
Ali Asghar Salem 2
Younes Nademi 3
Abbas Shakeri 1
1 Department of Theoretical Economics , Faculty of Economics, Allameh Tabatabae'i University, Tehran, Iran.
2 Department of Theoretical Economics , Faculty of Economics, Allameh Tabataba'i University
3 Department of Economics, , Faculty of Humanities, Ayatollah Boroujerdi University, Boroujerd, Iran.
چکیده English

The increase in household electricity consumption and the imbalance between electricity supply and demand represent one of Iran’s most critical energy challenges. In response, the government implemented the Removing Obstacles for Power Industry Development to control electricity consumption and encourage high-consuming households to save energy. However, the effect of this law on electricity consumption hasnot yet been examined. Therefore, this study aims to investigate the dynamic effects of the law on household electricity consumption and the moderating role of inflation. The novelty of the research lies in analyzing the law’s dynamic impacts and isolating the influence of inflation on the outcomes. The results indicate that the law has a significant negative effect on electricity consumption: the law’s coefficient is negative and significant in both the first and second years after implementation, although smaller in the second year. Moreover, the interaction term between inflation and the law is positive and significant. In other words, the law has a deterrent effect on electricity consumption, but its impact diminishes over time and under inflationary conditions. Therefore, it is recommended that pricing reforms be implemented gradually and alongside inflation control policies to ensure sustainable electricity savings.

کلیدواژه‌ها English

consumption, difference-in-differences, electricity tariffs, households’ electricity inflation.
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  • تاریخ دریافت 23 مهر 1404
  • تاریخ بازنگری 23 شهریور 1405
  • تاریخ پذیرش 28 شهریور 1405