نفت و توسعه اقتصادی ایران

Proposing a simple simulation model, this article analyzes the subject of utilizing oil revenues for the economic development of Iran. Using the most recent data and economic indexes of the country and applying a simultaraeous equations model, the key macroeconomic varialbes are simulated for a period of fjly years. The results of the model show that if oil continues to be the main policy instrument of the country for economic development, variables like oil revenues, per capita oil consumption, oil production and current oil reserves will &crease during the period set for the model.
The decreasing behavior of these variables, graphical& shown, is
based on assumptions made for population growth rate, growth rate of demand for oil, price of oil and reserves to production ratio.
Nevertheless, the model i.v set in a way that, there is always the
possibil&y of changing the assumptions, Observing the new result., comparing them to the original results, and measuring the sensitivity of the model for each policy change.