نویسندگان
چکیده
کلیدواژهها
عنوان مقاله [English]
The objective of the present paper is to consider the effect of
inflation on supply of Iran's non-oil exports for the period 1961-1999. It examines the hypothesis in which inflation has a negative effect on exporting goods in long-run, while its short-run effect is unknown. Hence, a theoretical framework is specified, and then is estimated by the Johansen - Juselious method (1990) for the long-run. The shortfun relationships are also estimated by the Error-Correction Model (ECM).
Overall, estimation results obtained indicate that inflation variable has significantly negative impact on non-oil exports in the long-run, whereas the real effective exchange rate and gross domestic product (GDP) affect positively supply of such exports. Based upon such co integrating regression
estimated by Johansen-Juselious method, the short-run behavior of exports undertaken by exploratory variables (such as inflation, GDP,...) is determined by ECM. Results estimated show that the short-run effect of inflation rather than its long-run effect is significantly negative on the supply
of non-oil exports. This implies the fact that inflation in Iran has often deteriorated bably allocation resources. Furthermore, results can approve the hypothesis that non-oil exports with respect to inflation is a weak exogenous variable.
کلیدواژهها [English]
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