واکاوی فضایی روند تورم مواد غذایی در ایران

نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشیار دانشگاه اصفهان، علوم اقتصادی، دانشگاه تهران

2 دانشجوی دکتری، اقتصاد شهری و منطقه‌ای، دانشگاه اصفهان،

3 دانشجوی دکتری، اقتصاد شهری و منطقه ای، دانشگاه اصفهان

چکیده

انتظار می‌رود که در کشوری با پول واحد، تورم در همه‌ی مناطق آن همگرا باشد. این امر مستقیماً با «همگرایی» پیوند خورده است. همگرایی از نظر سیاست‌گذاران موضوعی جدی است. گرچه موضوع تورم در اقتصاد کلان بررسی می‌شود، اما مواردی از شاخص‌های تورم، برای مثال تورم قیمت‌ها در موادغذایی توجه ویژه‌ای را به خود جلب کرده است. به‌طورکلی، مسئله‌ی همگرایی تورم مواد غذایی کمتر مورد توجه قرار گرفته است. این مطالعه در پی این است که با استفاده از داده‌های شاخص قیمت کالاها و خدمات مصرفی در بازه‌ی زمانی فروردین 1385 تا اسفند 1391، تحلیلی از پویایی‌های توزیع تورم در استان‌های کشور به دست دهد. در این مطالعه، هر استان به‌صورت مستقل در نظر گرفته می‌شود؛ درنتیجه اطلاعات منحصربه‌فردی به دست می‌آید که در برآورد و توضیح پویایی‌های تغییرات تورم کاربردی است. برای تحلیل پویایی‌های توزیع، از تخمین‌زننده‌ی «چگالی شرطی کرنل» و برای بصری‌کردن «تخمین‌زننده‌های چگالی شرطی» از دو روش گرافیکی استفاده شده است. در این پژوهش نشان داده می‌شود که «وابستگی فضایی» تورم مواد غذایی مابین استان‌های کشور وجود ندارد و فرض وجود استقلال استان‌ها نقض نمی‌شود، اما روندهایی همگرا بین استان‌های کشور وجود دارد.

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

Spatial analysis of food inflation in Iran

نویسندگان [English]

  • Saeed Samadi 1
  • Mozhgan Soleimani 2
  • Iman Keyfarokhi 3
چکیده [English]

It is expected that inflation in a country with one currency is convergent in all regions. This has been associated with “convergence” directly. In policymakers’ viewpoint, convergence is a serious topic. Although the topic of inflation is investigated in macroeconomics, some inflation indexes, for instance inflation of food prices has attracted special attention. Generally, the issue of food inflation convergence has been less considered. The present study seeks to present an analysis of inflation distribution dynamisms in the provinces in Iran using the data on price indexes of consumer products and services during the time period April 2007-March 2013. In this study, each province is considered independently. Therefore, unique information is obtained which is applied in estimation and explanation of dynamisms of inflation changes. “Kernel conditional density” estimator was employed to analyze distribution dynamisms and two graphic methods were used to visualize “conditional density estimators”. It was shown in the study that there is no “spatial dependence” among the provinces and the hypothesis regarding the existence of independence of provinces is not rejected but there are convergent trends among the provinces.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • inflation rate convergence
  • Distribution Dynamics
  • kernel density function
  • spatial Autocorrelation
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