رابطة بین توزیع عاملی درآمد و تقاضای کل در ایران بر اساس یک مدل پساکینزی

نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 استاد اقتصادسنجی و آماراجتماعی، گروه اقتصاد دانشگاه سمنان.

2 دانشجوی دوره دکترای دانشگاه سمنان

چکیده

هدف اصلی این پژوهش تعیین رژیم رشد در ایران بر اساس تحلیل‌های اقتصاد باز در مدل بهادوری و مارگلین (1990) بوده است. این مدل که به صورت گسترده در اقتصاد پساکینزی مورد استفاده قرار گرفته است، یک مدل کلان کالکین - پساکینزین می‌باشد که بر محور تقاضای مؤثر قرار دارد. بهادوری و مارگلین (1990)، با در نظر گرفتن مزد به‌عنوان یکی از اقلام هزینه و نیز جزئی از تقاضای کل، هر دو رژیم سود محور و مزد محور را در نظر گرفته و به بررسی اثر توزیع عاملی درآمد بر تقاضای کل پرداخته‌اند. با در نظر گرفتن مازاد عملیاتی ناخالص، جبران خدمات کارکنان، مخارج مصرفی، مخارج سرمایه­گذاری، استفاده از ظرفیت‌های موجود، سهم سود، نرخ ارز اسمی و خالص صادرات، نخست اثر تغییر سهم سود بر سهم مخارج مصرفی، سهم مخارج سرمایه­گذاری و سهم خالص صادرات از GDPطی سال‌های 1358-1392 در معادلاتی مجزا ارزیابی شده است. سپس اثر سهم سود بر تقاضای کل، با جمع اثرات جزئی برآورد شده است. نتایج نشان داده است که توزیع دوبارة درآمد به نفع سود، منجر به کاهش سهم مخارج مصرفی، افزایش سهم مخارج سرمایه­گذاری و همچنین افزایش سهم خالص صادرات از GDPمی­شود. بر اساس نتایج حاصل، رژیم تقاضای داخلی در ایران سود محور می‌باشد و با توجه به اثر مثبت سهم سود بر رقابت­پذیری بین­المللی، رژیم تقاضای کل نیز سود محور است.

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

Relationship between Functional Income Distribution and Aggregate Demand in Iran based on the Post Keynesian Model

نویسندگان [English]

  • Esmaiel Abounoori 1
  • Mahboobeh Farahati 2
1 Professor of Econometrics & Social Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Semnan.
2 PhD student of Semnan University
چکیده [English]

The main aim in this research has been to determining the growth regime in Iran based on an open economy concerning the Bhaduri and Marglin(1990) model.  This model which has been widely used in Post Keynesian economics is a Kaleckian-Post Keynesian macroeconomic model which is based on effective demand. Bhaduri and Marglin(1990) concerning wage as a cost item as well as a component of aggregate demand have considered both profit-led and wage-led regimes to study the effect of functional distribution of income on aggregate demand.  Considering gross operating surplus, compensation to employees, consumption expenditures, investment expenditures, capacity utilization, profit share, nominal currency rate and net exports, the impact of variation of profit share on consumption expenditures share, investment expenditures share and net export share of GDP, was first evaluated in a single equation for 1979 to 2013. Then, the total impact of profit share on total demand was estimated summing up the partial effects. The results show that redistribution in favor of profits results in reduction of consumption expenditures share, increase of investment expenditures share, and also increase in net export share of GDP. Based on the results, the regime of domestic demand in Iran is profit-led, and due to positive impact of profit share on international competitiveness, the total demand regime is also concluded to be profit-led.
 JEL Classifications: E12, E20, E22, E25

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Post Keynesian economics
  • Growth
  • income distribution
  • Consumption
  • Investment
  • Net Exports
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