تحلیل تاثیر سرریزهای بین استانی سرمایه انسانی بر رشد اقتصادی در ایران

نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

استادیار بخش اقتصاد دانشگاه شیراز

چکیده

سرمایه‌ی انسانی یکی از مهم‌ترین عوامل تعیین­کننده‌ی رشد اقتصادی می­باشد. این عامل از طریق افزایش بهره­وری نیروی انسانی، افزایش توان ایجاد و ظرفیت جذب فناوری­های جدید، افزایش بهره­وری سرمایه­‌ی فیزیکی و کاهش جرم و جنایت، بهبود انتخاب­های سیاسی و مهاجرت افراد تحصیل کرده به مناطق با سرمایه‌ی انسانی قوی­تر، هم اثراتی بر منطقه مورد نظر و هم اثرات سرریز بر رشد مناطق همجوار دارد.
هدف مقاله‌ی حاضر، تحلیل اثرات مستقیم و سرریزهای فضایی سرمایه‌ی انسانی بر رشد اقتصادی در استان­های ایران می­باشد. برای دستیابی به این هدف، از مدل در بین فضایی در داده­های تابلویی که با به‌کارگیری تکنیک حداکثر درستنمایی برآورد می­شود، برای 28 استان ایران طی دوره­ی زمانی  90-1380 استفاده شده است. یافته­ها نشان می­دهد که سرمایه‌ی انسانی تأثیر مستقیم مثبت و معناداری بر رشد اقتصادی هر استان دارد. همچنین سرمایه‌ی انسانی یک استان اثر سرریز مثبت بر رشد سایر استان­های داشته، به این معنی که با افزایش سرمایه‌ی انسانی هر استان‌، به طور متوسط رشد اقتصادی سایر استان‌ها افزایش یافته است.

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

Analysis of Inter- Province Spatial Spillover Effects of Human ‎Capital on Economic Growth in Iran

نویسندگان [English]

  • zahra dehghan2003
  • Rouhollah shahnazi
چکیده [English]

Human capital has important role on economic growth. This factor can increase labor and capital productivity. It can increase capacity of new technology and reduce criminal participation and improve voters’ political behavior and migration of people with high human capital to another region has effects on region and spatial spillover on other regions.
The present study aimed to analyze the direct and spatial spillover effects of
human capital on economic growth in provinces of Iran. For this aim, we estimate a Spatial Durbin Model in panel data by using ML technique for 28 provinces over the period 2001-2011. The results indicated that human capital has a positive and significant direct effect on economic growth of each province. Also, human capital has a significant and positive spatial spillover on economic growth in other provinces. This means that with increase human capital of each province, increase average of economic growth of other provinces.
JEL Classification: C33, J24, O47, R11

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Spatial spillovers
  • Human capital
  • Economic Growth
  • Spatial Durbin ‎Model
  • Iran.‎
 
آقایی، مجید، رضا قلی زاده، مهدیه و فریده باقری (1392). ﺑﺮرﺳﯽ ﺗﺄﺛﯿﺮ  ﺳﺮﻣﺎﯾﻪ‌ی اﻧﺴﺎﻧﯽ ﺑﺮ رﺷﺪ اﻗﺘﺼﺎدی در استان‌های ایران، فصلنامه‌ی پژوهش و برنامه‌ریزی در آموزش عالی، 67، 21-44 .
زراء نژاد، منصور و انصاری، الهه (1386). اندازه­گیری بهره­وری سرمایه در صنایع بزرگ استان خوزستان.  فصلنامه­ی بررسی­های اقتصادی، 4. 26-1.
بانک مرکزی ایران. اطلاعات سری­های زمانی آماری.
مرکز آمار ایران. سالنامه­های آماری استان­ها. سرشماری 1385 و 1390.
Atella, V., Belotti, F., Depalo, D., & Mortari, A. P. (2014). Measuring spatial effects in the presence of institutional constraints: The case of Italian Local Health Authority expenditure. Regional Science and Urban Economics, 49, 232-241.‏
Baldwin, R. E. (1999). Agglomeration and endogenous capital. European Economic Review, 43(2), 253-280.‏
Baldwin, R. E., & Martin, P. (2004). Agglomeration and regional growth. Handbook of regional and urban economics, 4, 2671-2711.‏
Baldwin, R. E., Martin, P., & Ottaviano, G. I. (2001). Global income divergence, trade, and industrialization: The geography of growth take-offs. Journal of Economic Growth, 6(1), 5-37.‏
Becker, G. S., & Mulligan, C. B. (1997). The endogenous determination of time preference. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 729-758.‏
Benhabib, J., And Spiegel, M. (1994). The Role of Human Capital in Economic Development Evidence from Aggregate Cross-Country Data, Journal of Monetaryeconomics, 34, 143−173.
Čadil, J., Petkovová, L., & Blatná, D. (2014). Human Capital, Economic Structure and Growth. Procedia Economics and Finance, 12, 85-92.
Capasso, S. (2005). Crime, inequality and economic growth. Innovation, Unemployment, and Policy in the Theories of Growth and Distribution, 168.‏
Cardoso, C., & Pentecost, E. J. (2011). Regional Growth and Convergence: The Role of Human Capital in the Portuguese Regions. Loughborough University Department of Economics Discussion Paper Series, 3.
Conley, T. G., & Ligon, E. (2002). Economic distance and cross-country spillovers. Journal of Economic Growth, 7(2), 157-187.‏
Del Bo, C., & Florio, M. (2012). Infrastructure and growth in a spatial framework: Evidence from the EU Regions, Review Of Economic Studies, 58, Pp. 277-297. regions". European Planning Studies, 20 (8), 1393–1414.
Fingleton B, López-Bazo E (2006) Empirical growth models with spatial effects. Papers in Regional Science. 85 (2): 177-219
Friedman, M. (1962). Capitalism and freedom. University of Chicago press.‏
Fujita, M., & Mori, T. (2005). Frontiers of the New Economic Geography*. Papers in Regional Science, 84(3), 377-405.‏
Harris, R.G (2011). Models of regional growth: past, present and future. Journal of economic surveys, 25(5), 913-951.‏
Higon, D. A., & Sena, V. (2006). Productivity, spillovers and human capital: An analysis for British establishments using the ARD dataset. DTI.‏
Kataoka,M. (2013). Human Capital and Regional Growth in Indonesia, Preliminary Studies.
LeSage, J., & Pace, R. K. (2009). Introduction to Spatial Econometrics. CRC Press.
Liu,D. & Meissner, C.M. (2014). Market potential and the rise of rise of US productivity leadership. Journal of International Economics. pp, 1-16
López-Bazo E; Vayá E, Artís M. (2004). Regional Externalities and Growth: Evidence from European
Regions. Journal of Regional Science 44 (1): 43-73
Lucas, R. (1988). On The Mechanics of Economic Development, Journal of Monetary Economics, 22, 3−42.
Mankiw, N., Romer, D., & Weil, D. (1992). A Contribution to the Empirics of Economic Growth, the Quarterly Journal of Economics, 107, 407−437.
Martín M. A. G.and Herranz A. Á (2004). Human Capital and Economic growth in Spanish regions. International Advances in Economic Research, 10(4), 257-264.
Mincer, J. (1989). Economic Development, Growth of Human Capital, and the Dynamics of the Wage Structure.  Journal of Economic Growth, 1(1) Pp. 29-48.
Minerva, G. A., & Ottaviano, G. I. (2009). Endogenous growth theories: Agglomeration benefits and transportation costs. Handbook of Regional Growth and Development Theories. Edward Elgar, Cheltenham.‏
Moretti, E. (2004). Workers' education, spillovers, and productivity: evidence from plant-level production functions. American Economic Review, 656-690.‏
Nakamura. R., Paul. C.J. (2009). Measuring Agglomeration. Handbook of Regional Growth and Development Theories. Great Britain by MPG Books Ltd, Bodmin, Cornwall.
Nelson R. And Phelps E. (1966). Investment in Humans, Technological Diffusion and Economic Growth, American Economic Review, 56, 69-75.
Novak, M. 2004. The Returns to Education: Some Empirical Findings for Slovenia. In Knowledge society – challenges to management: Globalisation, regionalism and eu enlargement process; Proceedings of the 4th International Conference of the Faculty of Management Koper, 20–22 November 2003, ed. E. Žižmond, 51–67. Koper: Faculty of Management
Olejnick A (2008). Using the spatial autoregressively distributed lag model in assessing the regional convergence of per-capita income in the EU25. Papers in Regional Science 87 (3): 371-385.
Pelkonen, L., & Ylonen, S. (1998). Human Capital and Regional Growth in Finland. In 38th Congress of the European Regional Science Association, Vienna, Austria.
Rauch J E (1993) Productivity Gains from Geographic Concentration of Human Capital: Evidence from the Cities. Journal of Urban Economics, 34 (3): 380-400
Ramos R. Suriñach J.And Artís M (2010). Human Capital Spillovers and Regional Economic Growth in Spain, Papers in Regional Science, 89(2), 435-447.‏
Romer P (1990). Endogenous technological Change. Journal of Political Economy, 94 (1) (1990), pp. 71–102
Rosenthal S S, Strange W C (2008) the Attenuation of Human Capital Externalities. Journal of Urban Economics, 64 (2): 373-389
Sellner Et Al, (2010). Human Capital and Regional Growth in Switzerland, Reihe Ökonomie Economics Series.
Vega, S. H., & Elhorst, J. P. (2013). On spatial econometric models,
spillover effects, and W. In 53rd ERSA Congress, Palermo, Italy.
Vidyattama, Y. (2010). A Search for Indonesia's Regional Growth Determinants. ASEAN Economic Bulletin, 27(3), 281-294.‏