نقش تجارت در اثرگذاری شوک‌های نفتی بر رشد اقتصادی کشورهای واردکننده و صادرکننده نفت

نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 گروه اقتصاد، دانشکده اقتصاد، دانشگاه علامه طباطبائی، تهران، ایران

2 دانشجوی دکتری مؤسسه آموزش و پژوهش در مدیریت و برنامه ریزی

چکیده

تجربه جهانی نشان داده است که قیمت نفت یکی از محرک­های مهم اقتصاد کشورهای درگیر تجارت آن است. نفت می­تواند اقتصاد این کشورها را چه به‌صورت مستقیم و چه به‌صورت غیرمستقیم از طریق تجارت با سایر کشورهای متأثر از قیمت این کالای اولیه، تحت تأثیر قرار دهد. در این مقاله، آثارمستقیم و غیرمستقیم (سرریز) شوک­های قیمتی نفتی برکشورهای صادرکننده و واردکننده نفت به تفکیک کشورهای توسعه­یافته و در حال توسعه، با استفاده از روشخودرگرسیون برداری برآورد شده است.
از ویژگی‌های مهم این مطالعه، اندازه­گیری آثار مستقیم و غیرمستقیم ناشی از تجارت بین‌المللی در چارچوب یک مدل سیستمی پویا و شمول سی اقتصاد بزرگ جهان که بیش از 73 درصد کل اقتصاد جهان را در اختیار دارند، می­باشد. نتایج برآورد مدل برای دوره 2015-1980 نشان می­دهد که کشورهای واردکننده نفت چه توسعه­یافته و چه در حال توسعه­، از افزایش قیمت نفت به طور مستقیم متضرر می­شوند اما اثر غیرمستقیم برای کشورهای توسعه یافته منفی و برای کشورهای در حال توسعه مثبت است. هم چنین، اثر افزایش قیمت نفت در کشورهای توسعه­یافته صادرکننده نفت منفی است که می­تواند به‌دلیل ساختار صنعتی آن­ها که متکی به واردات نفت هستند، باشد. اثر شوک­های افزایش قیمت نفت بر اقتصاد کشورهای صادرکننده نفت در حال توسعه مثبت ولی اثر غیرمستقیم آن به‌دلیل مراودات تجاری بالای این کشورها با کشورهای صنعتی واردکننده نفت، منفی است.
طبقه­بندی JEL:F00،F40 ، O40، Q43

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات


عنوان مقاله [English]

International Trade and Oil Shocks Effects on Global Economy

نویسندگان [English]

  • Saeed Moshiri 1
  • Elham Kheirandish 2
1 Associate Professor Allameh Tabataba'i University, Ian, Tehran
2 MA in Economics Institute for Management and Planning Studies, Ian, Tehran
چکیده [English]

Oil is one of the major drivers of the economic activities across the world. Oil prices affect the economies of both oil-importing and oil-exporting countries directly and indirectly through trade. In this paper, direct and indirect (spillovers) effects of oil price shocks on developed and developing oil exporting and importing countries are estimated using the Vector Auto-regression method. We measure the direct and indirect effects of international trade within the framework of a dynamic model and the data on thirty countries with more than 73 percent of the world’s economy for the period 1980-2015. The results show that rising oil prices affect oil-importing countries directly and indirect effects are negative for developed countries. The effect of rising oil prices in developed oil exporting countries is negative, which could be due to high share of their manufacturing industries. The impact of oil price shocks on the economies of developing oil exporting countries is also positive, but its indirect effect is negative due to the high trading of these countries with the oil-importing developed countries.
JEL Classification: F00, F40, O40, Q43

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Oil shocks
  • oil-importing
  • oil-exporting
  • global economy
  • International Trade
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