بررسی اثر تجارت بر نقل و انتقالات نیروی انسانی با استفاده از یک الگوی حداکثر درستنمایی پواسن نما (کاربردی از مدل جاذبه)

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی دکتری اقتصاد، دانشکده اقتصاد و علوم سیاسی، دانشگاه شهید بهشتی

2 استادیار گروه اقتصاد، دانشکده اقتصاد و علوم سیاسی، دانشگاه شهید بهشتی

چکیده

اثر تجارت بر تحرکات برون مرزی نیروی انسانی را می­توان از جنبه­های مختلف بررسی کرد. باز بودن اقتصاد خود اثرات متفاوتی بر دیگر شاخص­های اقتصادی و به‌طورکلی شرایط اقتصادی و از آن طریق رفاه جامعه دارد که خود بر تصمیم­گیری افراد در خصوص مهاجرت مؤثر است. این تحقیق با استفاده از یک الگوی حداکثر درستنمایی پواسن نما و با پیروی از مدل جاذبه­، به بررسی پدیده­ جریان مهاجرت از 35 کشور مبدأ به 20 کشور عضو OECD در دوره­ی زمانی 2000 تا 2018 پرداخته است. بر اساس نتایج الگو، افزایش تجارت کشورهای مقصد موجب افزایش جریان مهاجرت به آن کشورها (عامل جاذبه) و افزایش این شاخص در کشورهای مبدأ جریان مهاجرت را کاهش می­دهد (عامل دافعه). هم‌چنین افزایش تولید ناخالص داخلی کشورهای مقصد، افزایش جمعیت کشورهای مبدأ، افزایش حجم تجارت کشورهای مقصد و افزایش نرخ بیکاری کشورهای مبدأ؛ عوامل جاذبه­ی جریان مهاجرت از کشورهای مبدأ به کشورهای منتخب OECD شناخته شده­اند و کاهش این متغیرها می­تواند عامل دافعه مهاجرت تلقی شوند.
طبقه­بندی JEL: C23، F16، F22، F41، J61

کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله [English]

Investigating the Effect of Trade on Human Resources Movements Using Poisson Pseudo Maximum Likelihood Model (Application of Gravity Approach)

نویسندگان [English]

  • Mohammad Mostafazadeh 1
  • Hossein Samsami Mazraeh Akhond 2
1 Department of Economics, Faculty of Economics and Political Sciences, Shahid Beheshti University
2 Department of Economics, Faculty of Economics and Political Sciences, Shahid Beheshti University,
چکیده [English]

The effect of trade on the international movements of human resources can be examined from different aspects. The openness of the economy has different effects on other economic indicat ors and economic conditions in general, and through it the welfare of society, which affects people's decisions about migration. This study using a Poisson Pseudo Maximum Likelihood model and the gravity Approach, examines the phenomenon of migration flows from 35 countries of origin to 20 OECD countries. According to the results, increasing trade in destination countries increases the flow of migration to those countries (pull factor) and increasing this index in the countries of origin reduces the flow of emigration (push factor). Also, increasing the GDP of the destination countries, increasing the population of the countries of origin, increasing the trade volume of the destination countries and increasing the unemployment rate of the countries of origin; The factors that attract migration flows from countries of origin to selected OECD countries are known, and reducing these variables can be considered as a push factor in migration phenomenon.
JEL Classification: C23، F16، F22، F41، J61

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • trade
  • international movements of human resources
  • Poisson Pseudo Maximum Likelihood
  • Gravity Approach

مراجع

آذربایجانی، کریم، طیبی، سیّد کمیل و هنری، نفیسه (1386). عوامل مؤثر بر مهاجرت نیروی کار ایران. فصلنامه پژوهش‌های اقتصادی ایران، سال سیزدهم، شماره 40، 59-75.
عسگری، حشمت الله (1387). رویکردی نوین به مساله علل فرار مغزها و اثرات آن روی سرمایه انسانی، رشد اقتصادی و همگرایی منطقه‌ای در بین کشورهای در حال توسعه، پایان­نامه دوره دکتری، دانشکده اقتصاد دانشگاه علّامه طباطبایی.
عرب­مازار، علی اکبر، مشرفی، رسام و مصطفی‌زاده، محمد (1396). مهاجرت نیروی کار از ایران به کشورهای OECD و عوامل اقتصادی مؤثر بر آن. اقتصاد و الگوسازی، دوره 8، شماره 30، 63-94.
مصطفی‌زاده، محمد (1395). محاسبه هزینه فرصت اقتصادی مهاجرت نیروی انسانی برای اقتصاد ایران. پایان­نامه کارشناسی ارشد، گروه اقتصاد دانشکده اقتصاد و علوم سیاسی، دانشگاه شهید بهشتی. آذر 1395.
مصطفی‌زاده، محمد و عرب مازار، علی اکبر (1397). تأثیر نهادهای حکمرانی بر مهاجرت بین‌المللی نیروی کار ایران. سیاست‌گذاری اقتصادی، دوره 10، شماره 20، 1-33.
Arjen L., Godfried Engbersen, Izabela Grabowska-Lusinska, Erik Snel & Burgers, Jack. (2013). On the Differential Attachments of Migrants from Central and Eastern Europe: A Typology of Labour Migration. Journal of Ethnic and Migration Studies, 39, 6, 81-959.
Antoni, M. R., Rudzionis. A. & Kumpikaite. V. (2014). The Migration Flow of Teachers at Tertiary Level with a Focus in Economic Factors. Procedia – Social and Behavioral Sciences, 156(26), 252-255.
Athukorala, Prema-chandra & Evelyn, S.Devadason. (2012). The Impact of Foreign Labor on Host Country Wages: The Experience of a Southern Host, Malaysia.” World Development, 40, 8, 1497-1510.
Bang, J. T., & Mitra, A. (2011). Brain Drain and Institutions of Governance: Educational attainment of immigrants to the US 1988– 1998. Economic Systems. 35(3): 335-354.
Borjas, George J. (2006). Immigration in High-Skill Labor Markets: The Impact of Foreign Students on the Earnings of Doctorates. Journal of Human Resources, 41, Working Paper 12085.
Borjas, George J.  (1999). The Economic Analysis of Immigration. The Handbook of Labor Economics, No 3.
Bove, Vincenzo & Eliab, Leandro. (2017). Migration, Diversity, and Economic Growth. World Development, 89, 39-227.
Card, David, Christian Dustmann & Preston, Ian. (2012. International Migration and Poverty: a Cross Country Analysis. Journal of the European Economic Association, 10, 41.
Clemens, Michael A (2011). Economics and Emigration: Trillion-Dollar Bills on the Sidewalk?. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 25, 3, 83-106.
Cuamea Velazquez, F. (2000). Approaches to the study of international migration: A review. Estudios Fronterizos, 1(1), 137-168.
Czaika, Mathias (2015). Migration and Economic Prospects. Journal of Ethnic and Migration Studies, 45, 1, 58-82.
Czaika, Mathias & De Haas, Hein. (2013). The Globalisation of Migration. The International Migration Institute, 14, Working Paper, Paper 68.
Dancygier, Rafaela M., & Michael J. Donnelly. (2013). Sectoral Economies, Economic Contexts, and Attitudes toward Immigration. The Journal of Politics, 75, 1.
De Haas, H. (2009). Migration and development, A theoretical perspective. International Migration Institute (IMI), 44(1), 1-41.
De Haas, H. (2010). Migration transitions: a theoretical and empirical inquiry into the developmental drivers of international migration, 26th IUSSP International Population Conference, Session 195: International labour migration: Trends, policies and legal issues, Marrakech, Morocco.
Dorigo. G. & Tobler, W. (1983). Push-Pull Migration Lows, Amals of the Association of American Geographers.
Douglas S, Massey & Emilio A, Parrado. (1998). International Migration and Business Formation in Mexico. Social Science Quarterly , 79, 1, 1-20.
Dustmann, Christian, Fasani, Francesco, Frattini, Tommaso, Minale, Luigi & Schönberg, Uta (2017). On the economics and politics of refugee migration. Economic Policy, 32, 91, 497-550.
Dustmann, Christian & Görlach, Joseph-Simon (2016). The Economics of Temporary Migrations. Hournal of Economic Literature, 54, 1, 98-136.
Eger, Maureen A. (2010). Even in Sweden: The Effect of Immigration on Support for Welfare State Spending. European Sociological Review, 26, 2.
Etzo, Ivan (2011). The Determinants of the Recent Interregional Migration Flows in Italy: A Panel Data Analysis. Journal of Regional Science, 51, 5, 66-948.
Fairlie, Robert W, & Magnus, Lofstrom (2015). Handbook of the Economics of International Migration, No 1.
Genc, Murat, Gheasi, Masood, Nijkamp, Peter & Poot, Jacques (2012). The impact of immigration on international trade: a meta-analysis, Chapters, in: Nijkamp, Peter, Poot, Jacques & Sahin, Mediha (ed.), Migration Impact Assessment, chapter 9, pages 301-337, Edward Elgar Publishing.
Giulietti, Corrado & Wahba, Jackline. (2013). Chapter 26: Welfare migration. International Handbook on the Economics of Migration. Elgar original reference, 489–504.
Hatzigeorgiou, Andreas & Lodefalk, Magnus (2015). Trade, Migration and Integration – Evidence and Policy Implications. World Economy, 38, 12, 2013-2048. 
Hijzen, Alexander & Peter W., Wright. (2009). Migration, trade and wages. Journal of Population Economics, 23, 1189–1211.
Holmlund, Bertil & Calmfors, Lars (2000). Unemployment and economic growth: a partial survey. Swedish Economic Policy Review, 7, 107-153.
Kangasniemi, Mari, Mas, Matilde, Robinson, Catherine & Serrano, Lorenzo. (2012). The economic impact of migration: productivity analysis for Spain and the UK. Journal of Productivity Analysis, 38, 43-333.
Kothari, U. (2002). Migration and Chronic Poverty; Institute for Development Policy and Management. Working Paper. No 16.
Lee, E. S. (1966). A Theory of Migration. Demography, 3(1), 47-57.
Levine, Linda. (2012). Economic Growth and the Unemployment Rate. Congressional Research Service, 7, 5700.
Marfouk, A. (2007). Africa Brain Drain: Scope and Determinants. Paper Prepared for the Rectors, Vice-Chancellors and Presidents of African Universities Conference on The African Brain Drain - Managing the Drain: Working with the Diaspora. Tripoli (Libya),.
Mayda, A.M. (2005). International Migration:A panel Data Analysis of Economic and Non Economic Determinants. IZA Discussion paper. No 1590.
Mayda, A, M. (2009). International migration: a panel data analysis of the determinants of bilateral flows. Journal of Population Economics, 23, 1249–1274.
Mottaghi, S. (2015). The impact of economic factors on migration in Iran (Emphasis on income and employment indicators) (In Persian). Journal Management System, 3(11), 63-74.
Niedomysl, T. (2011). How Migration Motives Change over Migration Distance: Evidence on Variation across Socio-economic and Demographic Groups. Regional Studies, 45, 6, 55-843.
Ortega, F., & Peri, G. (2014). Openness and income: The roles of trade and migration. Journal of International Economics, 92, 2, 231-251.
Pierre, C., & Philippe, M. (1996). Minimum wage unemployment and growth. European Economic Review, 40, 7, 82-1463.
Ravenstein, E. G. (1885). The Laws of Migration. Journal of the Statistical Society of London, 48(2), 167-235
Richard B. Freeman. (2015). Immigration, International Collaboration, and Innovation: Science and Technology Policy in the Global Economy. Innovation Policy and the Economy, 15, 153-175.
Skeldon, R. (2002). Migration and poverty. Asia-Pacific population journal,  17, 4,  67-82.
Stark, O. (1991). The Migration of Labor, Cambridge and Oxford: Blackwell.
Stark, O., & Bloom, D. E. (1985). The New Economics of Labor Migration. American Economic Review, 75, 173-78.
Straubhaar, T. (2006). The Economics of Migration Policies.  The Politics of Migration, 41, 290-291.
Tabellini, F. D. G (2000). Unemployment, growth and taxation in industrial countries. Economic Policy, 15, 30, 48-104.
Taylor, J. (1999). The New Economics of Labor Migration and the role of remittances in the migration process. International Migration, 37(1), 63–88.
Thomas, Michael J. (2019). Employment, education, and family: Revealing the motives behind internal migration in Great Britain. population space and place, 25, 4, 1-11.
Tilly, C. (2011). The impact of the economic crisis on international migration: a review. Work, Employment and Society 25, 92-657.
Uprety, D. (2019). The Impact of International Trade on Migration by Skill Levels and Gender in Developing Countries. International Migration, 58, 4, 117-139.
Vogler, M., & Rotte, R. (2000). The effects of development on migration: Theoretical issues and new empirical evidence. Journal of Population Economics, 13, 485–508.
Zanowiak, K. (2006). Caring networks of NGOs NGO assistance to undocumented migrants along the U.S.-Mexico border International Migration, Unpublished Manuscript, University of Texas, USA.
https://stats.oecd.org/
http://databank.worldbank.org/data/database
http://databank.worldbank.org/data/databases.aspx?qterm=globalbilateralmigration&pagenumber=1
https://stats.oecd.org/Index.aspx?DataSetCode=MIG#

فایل ها

سابقه مقاله

  • تاریخ دریافت: 08 اسفند 1399
  • تاریخ بازنگری: 08 اردیبهشت 1400
  • تاریخ پذیرش: 11 اردیبهشت 1400

هم رسانی

ارجاع به این مقاله

آمار