اثر بازگشتی مستقیم بهبود کارایی خودروهای سواری بر مصرف بنزین در ایران

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 گروه اقتصاد نظری، دانشکده اقتصاد، دانشگاه علامه طباطبائی، تهران، ایران

2 گروه اقتصاد انرژی و منابع، دانشکده اقتصاد، دانشگاه خوارزمی، تهران، ایران

3 گروه اقتصاد انرژی، دانشکده اقتصاد، دانشگاه خوارزمی، تهران، ایران

چکیده

رشد شتابان مصرف سوخت در بخش حمل‌ونقل، افزون بر تشدید مصرف غیربهینه، خطرات دیگری در حوزه‌های محیط ‌زیست، تأمین وامنیت انرژی ملی به دنبال دارد. از این رو، بهبود بهره‌وری در مصرف انرژی، با هدف صرفه‌جویی در مصرف سوخت، مورد توجه سیاست گذاران می‌باشد، اما در حقیقت، چنین رویکردی، با بروز پدیده اثر بازگشتی روبرو شده و تا حدود زیادی از میزان اثرات مثبت آن در جهت تقلیل مصرف انرژی، خنثی می‌شود.
در این مطالعه با هدف برآورد اثر بازگشتی مستقیم بهبود کارایی مصرف بنزین خانوارهای شهری به تفکیک چهار طبقه مصرفی (کم‌تر از 60 لیتر، 60 تا 80 لیتر، 80 تا 120 لیتر و بیش از 120 لیتر)، طی سال‌های 1396 - 1399، از مدل سیستم تقاضای تقریبا ایده‌آل و روش رگرسیون به ظاهر نامرتبط، استفاده شده است.
نتایج نشان می‌دهد که اثر بازگشتی مستقیم بهبود کارایی مصرف بنزین به تفکیک چهار طبقه مصرفی کم‌تر از 60 لیتر، 60 تا 80 لیتر، 80 تا 120 لیتر و بیش از 120 لیتر به‌ترتیب برابر با 73/0، 94/0، 63/0 و 47/0 می‌باشد.
چنین یافته‌هایی نشان می‌دهد که به موازات افزایش مصرف غیرسهمیه‌ای بنزین، صرفه‌جویی بیشتری تحقق می‌یابد. در حقیقت مکانیزم قیمت‌گذاری بنزین که همواره مورد انتقاد قرار گرفته، عاملی مهم در میزان اثر بازگشتی است و اصلاحات بیشتری در این زمینه لازم می‌باشد.
 طبقه ‎بندی JEL: K32, C32, H20, D61

کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله [English]

The Direct Rebound Effect of Improving the Efficiency of Passenger Cars on Gasoline Consumption in Iran

نویسندگان [English]

  • Ali Asghar Salem 1
  • Siab Mamipour 2
  • Masoumeh Azizkhani 3
1 Department of Economics, Faculty of Economics, University of Allameh Tabataba'i, Tehran, Iran
2 Department of Energy and Resource Economics, Faculty of Economics, University of Kharazmi, Tehran, Iran
3 Department of Energy Economics, Faculty of Economics, University of Kharazmi, Tehran, Iran
چکیده [English]

In addition to intensified nonoptimal consumption, the accelerated rise of fuel consumption in the transportation sector is also followed by other hazards in domains such as the environment and national energy security and supply. Therefore, policymakers are particularly interested in improving the productivity of energy consumption with the intention of fuel saving. Such an approach, however, is faced with the rebounded effect in reality, and its positive impacts on reducing energy consumption are counteracted to a large extent. Aiming to estimate the direct rebound effect of improving gasoline consumption efficiency among urban households in four classes of consumption (less than 60 L, 60 to 80 L, 80 to 120 L, and more than 120 L) from 2017 to 2020, the present study applies the almost ideal demand system (AIDS) model and the seemingly unrelated regression (SUR) method. The results indicate that the direct rebound effect of improving gasoline consumption efficiency in four classes of consumption, i.e., less than 60 L, 60 to 80 L, 80 to 120 L, and more than 120 L is 0.73, 0.94, 0.63, and 0.47, respectively. These findings imply that the higher the non-rationed gasoline consumption, the more the saving. In fact, the gasoline pricing mechanism, which has been subject to ongoing criticism, is a significant factor in the extent of the rebound effect, and further amendments are required in this regard. 

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Almost Ideal Demand System
  • Direct Rebound Effect
  • Energy Consumption
  • Gasoline Consumption Efficiency
  • Transportation

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  • تاریخ دریافت: 12 آذر 1401
  • تاریخ بازنگری: 26 بهمن 1401
  • تاریخ پذیرش: 08 اسفند 1401

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